ATAR Estimate (2 Viewers)

[google5678]

Hey,

Just wondering what people think I could get with these ranks:

English (Advanced)- 8/53
Math Ext 1- 1/10
Math Ext 2- 2/2
Chemistry- 2/11
Biology- 2/42
Physics- 1/13

School is ranked around 200.
Cheers!

 

[enoilgam]

Quick question, with MX2, do you know how many people usually get a band 6 each year in the subject, and does your school place a restriction on the people who do it?

 

[fiesycal]

99+ is possible although it's hard to know how well you will do against the rest of the state. Also your english isn't low but due to the low ranking school it's hard to tell. 98+ definitely.

 

[google5678]

We only usually get one or two people doing it per year, but it seems that they do consistantly get band 6.
And there is no restriction on who does it.

 

[michaeljennings]

99

 

[enoilgam]

I'd say from 98-99.5. I'm assuming that since your coming first in MX1 and since most people who do MX2 at your school get band 6's, that you will probably get over 90 for the subject. The only thing which is hurting your chances of 99 is your english ranking. Just try and move it up at least 2-3 places and you would most likely reach your goal.

 

[google5678]

Excellent, thanks all!

 

[Shadowdude]

You guys... are really questionable estimators. No offence. 99? 98? This person is in a school ranked 200 - what makes them automatically in the top 2000 or so in the state? That's what you're saying.

Yes, this person has the potential to do that if they do really well in externals - but we're supposed to estimate on current facts. Yes, this person is ranked 1st in many of their subjects. Yes, they go to a moderately high ranked school. Does that equate to top 2000-ness? Not to me.

96+

 

[enoilgam]

I based my opinion on the fact that in most schools ranked 150-250, which have a approximately 150 students (Btw just to clarify, I'm assuming there are about 150 people who go to his school based on the number of people in Advanced english and biology.), at least 2-4 people get 98+. Since this person is ranked top 2 in nearly all his subjects, I believe that he is probably in the top 4 students at this school. Further aiding his cause is the fact that he has 12 units, which means his worse two units, wont count.

Estimating a persons ATAR is extremely difficult as there are a variety of factors to consider. As you can see from my first paragraph in this post and in my previous post, I've already made several assumptions. So in my opinion, the difficulty in making ATAR estimations means that for an estimate to be "bad", it would have to be really really far-fetched.

 

[Shadowdude]

I said questionable. Not outright bad.

I can see the thinking, however... really we can't assume much because as estimators - we're often seen as 'the last word' and a definitive answer to their troubles.

 

[enoilgam]

I said questionable. Not outright bad.

I can see the thinking, however... really we can't assume much because as estimators - we're often seen as 'the last word' and a definitive answer to their troubles.

True, people need to understand that estimates are very unreliable, even when issued by their school - thats why I never looked at the official one that my school gave me. I'd like to clarify though that whenever I give an estimate, I consider a variety of different factors based on what I know - I dont just wildly throw numbers out there.

 

[sarah-j-]

how important are your in school ranks?
and how important is your schools rank. My schools is in the 130s?

 

[enoilgam]

how important are your in school ranks?
and how important is your schools rank. My schools is in the 130s?

School ranks only help estimators gauge the strength of a students competition. For example, coming 5th out of 50 in a school ranked 1st in the state is alot different to coming 5th out of 50 in a school ranked 500th in the state.

A school rank of 130 is pretty good considering that there are 600 plus schools in the state.

 

[sarah-j-]

so say
my ranks are:
Adv Eng. 44/156
Modern. 14/55
Society: 8/63
Religion II 24/49
Art: 25/59

what would that do?
and as I said before my school is in the 130s.

 

[enoilgam]

I reakon 82.5-85. You really need to improve SOR and Art if you want to push your ATAR beyond 85

 

[sarah-j-]

oh ahaha,
thats the plan.
have legit winged the most part of year 12.

If I improve those two ranks to say
art: 15/59 (I ranked 7/59 in my 1/2 yearly, just majorly screwed up one assesment)
and
sor: 17/49

would that improve it a fair bit?

sorry for all the questions. I just really don't understand all this stuff!

**and it probably doesnt matter but, their is over 400 people in my year?

 

[enoilgam]

That should be enough for 85+. If you want to get 90, then you would need to improve all your rankings by a few places (2-5) and english by 15.

sorry for all the questions. I just really don't understand all this stuff

I was the same to in year 11 and 12, there is no one to explain how it all works. You dont need to feel bad for asking questions, thats what BOS is for.

 

[sarah-j-]

Okay cool. I need to get 89, so I will aim to improve all rankings then!

If I do realllly well in the HSC exams will that help improve all that stuff and make a 90 possible if I can't improve all the rankings by enough?

Thanks for all your help, you're a legend!

 

[enoilgam]

If you cannot improve your rankings, you will have to do extremely well in the HSC to get 90. Whilst what I have said sounds easy, it is extremely difficult because many people start to pick up their game exponentially around the trials. I think 90 is a possibility but have your work cut out for you as you need to improve ALL your rankings, as opposed to just one or two subjects.

Just with my estimate that I have given you, try to keep in mind what I said earlier in this thread, ATAR estimates can be very inaccurate as you need to make many assumptions. In essence, any estimate you get given is a "guess".

 

[sarah-j-]

Yeah.
I haven't done much all year so picking up my game should be okay but yeah, I do have to consider everyone else will as well. I've been legit the worst HSC student ahaha.

I just hope I can get there. I can always go to wollongong if I dont get the mark for unsw.
thanks for your help!