From what Ive observed working in HR/Recruitment, the supply of graduates isn't an issue in comparison to the nature of the jobs market. For a starters, graduate programs are being progressively scaled back in many industries. The reason being that the ROI just isnt there for many firms. Graduate Programs are extremely expensive for firms, as they are essentially burdening themselves with training people who have very little experience. In order to see a strong ROI, a graduate would need to stay with a company for at least 5+ years and progress through the ranks. Back 20 or 30 years ago, most people stuck with a company for a long period of time. However, with the advent of the protean career, graduates tend to leave organisations after only a few years nowadays, which means that graduate programs are no longer as viable as they once were from an ROI standpoint.
That being said, graduate programs have never represented the bulk of graduate recruitment. The main issue with today's job market is the circular nature, where business have the attitude that they only want people with "experience". Given the faster pace of the modern work environment, companies want ready made applicants and simply cant be bothered to put the effort in to training graduates. There are a vast number of jobs out there which graduates could perform. However, companies often believe that graduates represent too much effort. This attitude is quite myopic and down the track, there will be a shortage of trained professionals. Even now, Im seeing more and more applicants who lack traditional career profiles namely because they need to find long, alternate pathways into their desired field (hypocritically in my view, HMs and organisations see this as a negative in applicants).
On a personal level, I feel quite strongly about the issue namely because I believe that many organisations are shirking what I view as an economic responsibility to train graduates. That's one thing that bothers me about the whole concept of CSR - organisations will donate to worthy causes (which isnt their role in an economy), whilst avoiding a key responsibility. As I told one business I did some consulting for, "Charity starts in the home and if you dont provide opportunities for graduates, you have no business running a CSR".