UFC 109, I'm marking down as the rematch date, gives each camp around 3 months to prepare for it.
I saw this on Sherdog and it is exactly how I saw the fight:
Rd. 1 --Rua's gameplan shows from the beginning, with an attempt at a kick to the ribs, which Machida counterattacks throwing 4 knees to Shogun's body. Each knee is well blocked by Shogun.
Nothing significant happens until 4:04 remaining when Shogun lands a hard kick to Machida's right inner thigh.
Lyoto follows it up with another clinch and another attempt at some devastating knees, which Shogun controls by clinching up against the cage.
Shogun delivers knees to the right inner thigh of Machida.
A bodylock away from the cage & an elbow by Shogun pulls both fighters apart.
Machida lands a hard kick to the ribs of Shogun, which Shogun immediately answers with a low kick to Lyoto's right shin.
Knee to Shogun's mid-section from Machida, Shogun takes it to the cage once more... three more knees to the left thigh of Machida during the tie-up.
Machida defends against the knees better, forcing Shogun to attempt the sweep, which fails and forces a break. Once they break, there's very visible markings on Machida's right ribcage.
No more significant contact until 1:44 remaining, when Shogun attempts a low kick, which connects with Machida's lower ribs.
Machida lands a low kick & retreats, which Shogun immediately chases down and delivers a low kick of his own.
Back to the centre, followed by a low kick to the left leg of Machida, which he answers with a low kick.
Lyoto delivers a body kick, which is immediately answered by a Rua body kick & a hard right hook.
Another hard kick to Machida's ribcage with 0:22 to go.
Shogun attempts a right & a low kick, only mildly connecting with the kick to Machida's shin. As they make their way back to the centre of the cage, Lyoto appears to have a visible limp when weight is placed on his right leg.
Machida attempts a straight left, which misses, as the 10 second mark is hit.
The round ends.
Shogun wins on aggression, control & effective striking.
Rd. 2 --Immediately to the centre of the cage. Shogun attempts a low kick at 4:42 remaining, which misses. Machida lands a body kick to Shogun's right ribcage & backs off.
Rua chases & lands a hard low kick to the left shin of Machida.
No more significant contact until 4:07 to go, when Machida lands a straight 1-2 combination, the first of which lands square, the second is defended nicely. The third strike thrown does not make contact.
Machida lands a glancing kick to Shogun's right ribs.
Shogun follows it up with a return kick to Lyoto's injured ribs.
They clash & Shogun lands a knee to the same side, which propels him backwards. No contact is made by Machida.
Machida lands a hard knee to Shogun's mid-section as Shogun goes for the takedown.
Machida defends well, & they separate... back to the centre of the cage.
Lyoto attempts a low kick & misses, followed by another hard low kick to the shin, which connects as Shogun goes for the takedown & fails.
Shogun lands a glancing kick to the body, then lands another more squarely.
Machida gets in a hard kick to the right ribs. Shogun chases Machida down, throwing a 1-2 combo & connecting with a high kick to the body.
1:35 to go and Shogun connects with a knee to the right side of Machida's body, Machida defends with a low kick.
Rua lands a flying knee to the injured ribs of Machida and immediately follows with a takedown attempt, which is well defended by Lyoto.
Shogun lands another glancing kick to the left thigh of Machida.
Shogun attempts a takedown which Machida defends with a hard knee to the body. Shogun keeps the clinch and takes it to the side of the cage, where he delivers five knees to the left, one to the right thigh. Machida follows with a knee of his own with 31 seconds to go.
Another set of knees from Shogun, one to the body and the rest to the left thigh as the crowd begin to boo the long clinch.
The separate as the round ends.
Shogun wins on control & effective striking.
Rd. 3 -- Shogun kicks off the third round with a kick to the body and a straight left.
Machida lands a right and a low kick, Shogun answers with a low kick, which is blocked by Machida.
Shogun lands a glancing kick to the shin and a kick to the right ribs of Machida.
No significant contact is made until 3:18 remaining, when both fighters land a low kick, with Machida attempting a straight right... which is blocked well by the high guard of
Shogun.
Shogun lands a low kick, which Machida counter-strikes with a straight right.
Shogun attempts a takedown, finishing in a clinch against the cage, landing a knee to the leg and a left forearm to the face of Lyoto as they break.
Lyoto lands a glancing low kick, which Rua counters with a hard low.
Both fighters land a tough low kick, indicating that Machida has finally settled into Shogun's timing.
Shogun connects with a kick to the body.
1:07 remaining and Machida connects with a low kick, which Shogun answers with attempted strikes and a low kick to the thigh. Only the kick is landed.
Another hard kick to the left thigh of Machida, while Machida counters with a clinch and a knee, answered by a knee from Shogun.
Machida lands two consecutive 1-2 combos, with a knee to the body against the cage. Another 1-2 from Lyoto, while Rua throws a right hook which forces Machida backwards to dodge.
Another body kick from Machida, followed by a straight right, Shogun counters with a hard left hook (long exchange, only significant blows were counted).
Machida with a right and left which both miss, as they clinch. Machida takes up a defensive position against the cage as Shogun lands a knee to the mid-section.
Shogun throws a glancing right as they break.
End of round.
Machida wins on aggression, control & effective striking.
Rd. 4 -- Cautious start, no significant contact until after more chants of "MACHIDA!" ring out. Shogun connects with a glancing inside kick.
Another attempt at a low kick by Shogun is countered by Machida. 1-2 combo follows from Machida, neither punch passes the guard.
Another low kick from Shogun. Machida already appears less aggressive, more tired.
Shogun attempts a body kick, which lands but is countered by a straight right from Machida. A quick jab and a high kick from Machida connects with the guard of Shogun.
Low kick from Shogun to follow. Low kick from Machida, which causes him to slip... he's quickly to his feet, but Shogun has already committed to an attempted mount/takedown, which rattles both fighters to the cage.
Machida defends excellently and they break.
2:19 remains & Shogun connects with a low kick. Machida counters with a straight jab & a flurry of punches which don't land. They clinch, & Shogun lands a hard knee to Lyoto's
injured ribs.
Another good low kick, with another glancing jab from Shogun and Machida respectively.
A quick, square jab flowing into the clinch from Shogun & an elbow to the face of Machida as they break.
Machida is visibly slower on his feet & his unusual stance has completely changed to a more conventional one, indicating the damage to his legs.
Knee to the body from Shogun as Machida attempts a head shot. Shogun chases, missing with the right hand, but connecting with a body kick to the left side.
Machida makes a poor attempt at a clinch, and fails, showing the damage to his ribs. Another hard low kick from Shogun with 42 seconds remaining.
No more contact as the round ends.
Shogun wins on aggression & effective striking.
Rd. 5 -- Another cautious start, until a low kick from Shogun is landed at 4:31 remaining.
Machida tries to counter with a flying knee, the damage to his legs is apparent as he fails to connect with any real force.
A jab from Machida doesn't pass the guard of Shogun.
Rua lands a low kick. Another body kick from Shogun as Machida tries to defend, landing a hard right to the face of Shogun.
A hard low kick from Shogun connects.
A nice body kick from Machida lands on the right ribcage of Shogun, which he answers with a low kick. Machida jabs, but doesn't pass the guard. Shogun throws a 1-2 which hits nothing but air.
2:31 remains and Machida connects with a straight right. Hard knee by Machida, into the clinch, with another knee with no impact as they break.
Shogun lands a glancing body kick.
Another clinch, with Shogun against the cage for the first time. Two knees from Shogun, as Machida appears to be resting, answered with a knee from Machida as the crowd boos and the ref calls "Let's work!"
They're separated and a hard body kick from Shogun follows with 2:06 to go.
Shogun appears the more fresh of the two fighters as he lands a straight left jab to the throat of Machida.
They clinch and Shogun lands a knee. Back against the cage, this time with Shogun in control. Shogun breaks with a left elbow and a right hook to the face.
1:25 remains in the 5th as the first chants for Shogun are heard.
Shogun throws a right and walks into a hard knee to the body, resulting in a short-lived clinch and a glancing punch from Shogun as they break. 57 seconds to go and Shogun attempts a kick.
Machida attempts a high kick, which is nicely defended.
Machida goes for the clinch, Shogun defends with a raised knee, breaks apart and lands a glancing blow in a flurry of three punches.
Lyoto attempts a kick, misses, attempts a punch, misses. Shogun counters with a straight left.
The round ends.
Very close round, could extremely easily go either way, however I would personally award the round to Shogun on aggression and striking.
In summation;
I feel that in a fair and just decision, Shogun should be the new LHW champion with either a 4-1 decision OR a 3-2 split.
