Gillard will imo indefinitely win the leadership ballot on Monday, simply becase Rudd is too much of a dickhead and has too bad a reputation as a egocentric control freak to have much support within his own party. However, whilst Gillard has proven to be successful in face to face negotiations, ruthless and witty in parliament, neverhteless she has never been capable of actually presenting herself effectively to the Australian public. Instead much of her tenure as Prime Minister has been undermined by the fact that she is a terrible public speaker, bores the Australian public to death and cannot sell her ideas for shit. That's probably the brutal truth, that even if she had good policies, even if she was a great negotiator, intelligent etc. she did not demonstrate this directly to the Australian public and therefore could not possibly shore up their support. Rudd could probably muster significant public support, but has the opposite problem in the sense that he is an abysmal negotiator and has already garnered a bad reputation within his own caucus.
Either way, I think the Labor Party is pretty much effed for the next election. Not because of an effective Opposition mind you, but because they screwed themselves up.