Federal Election (3 Viewers)

[Sathius005]

A)Can the Australian Labor Party win government in the 2016 federal election?
B) Who do you want as leader of the two main political parties?
C) Who do you think are rising stars within the Australian Labor Party and the Coalition?

 

[townie]

Isn't this a little premature?

 

[Rafy]

Re: 2016 Federal Election

How do you know it'll be in 2016?

 

[harrietty]

Re: 2016 Federal Election

How do you know it'll be in 2016?

Elections are supposed to be every 3 years aren't they?

A)Can the Australian Labor Party win government in the 2016 federal election?
B) Who do you want as leader of the two main political parties?
C) Who do you think are rising stars within the Australian Labor Party and the Coalition?

I think there's a definite chance of a Labor win, especially with the disdain for the Liberals already at a high only a week after they've come into power. Plus, the Liberals did not get the 'landslide' of votes they were hoping for - leaving Labor with a chance to be able to swing back next election if people get their heads together and sort out their voting preferences. Based off of first preferences alone, the Liberals only beat Labor because of the National's preferences.

And many people apparently voted in other parties which gave the Liberals their preferences, but a lot of people aren't aware of that.
I wouldn't mind seeing Penny Wong or Anthony Albanese as leader of Labor. I think they need a great change after the Rudd/Gillard era. In a way, this has given them a chance to fix the 'disloyalty' and 'conniving' that apparently led to their downfall (this reminds me a bit too much of Julius Caesar).

As for the Liberal leader, right now I'm thinking that anyone other than Abbott might at least appear a bit more suited to the job, although the Liberals on a whole are just too conservative and right wing for my tastes. Over the next few years I expect to see a lot more hatred and contempt voiced for Abbott - policies aside, I just don't think he has the ability to represent us on a global scale, and his public speaking qualities are not what you'd expect from a PM.

 

[Sathius005]

Re: 2016 Federal Election

Let's terminate the carbon tax/ ETS: Labor Right Faction.
Source: AFR
Elements of Mr Shorten's Right faction broke ranks on Wednesday and said Labor should allow the Coalition to abolish the carbon tax and emissions trading scheme. Former Trade Minister Richard Marles and South Australian MP Nick Champion who survived a strong swing against him in his seat of Wakefield, led calls for Labor to respect Tony Abbott's mandate. "Emissions trading is a system designed by market economists to appease the Greens fundamentalists", Mr Champion remarked. "We shouldn't be surprised that Labor voters don't like it. They don't like markets and they don't like the Greens." added Mr Champion.

 

[Rafy]

Re: 2016 Federal Election

Elections are supposed to be every 3 years aren't they?

Could be a double dissolution. A house only election can also be held at any time. It's also still possible that the latest date could be in 2017 as the requirement is that the writs be issued 3 years after the first sitting of the House (as opposed to the election being 3 years after the last election).

I think there's a definite chance of a Labor win, especially with the disdain for the Liberals already at a high only a week after they've come into power.

Evidence for this?

New governments always have a honeymoon period and there's no indication that it'll be any different this time. Disdain may be high within left wing circles perhaps, but in the wider electorate the new government will be enjoying strong support.

Plus, the Liberals did not get the 'landslide' of votes they were hoping for - leaving Labor with a chance to be able to swing back next election if people get their heads together and sort out their voting preferences.

It was by all accounts a landslide, in 2PP terms, on primaries, on seat numbers. It's well above Rudd's 2007 win and on par with Howard in 1996. The ALP primary is only 33% which is a shocker of a number. It is indeed the lowest in 100 years.

Based off of first preferences alone, the Liberals only beat Labor because of the National's preferences.

Not sure what you mean here.
The liberals and nationals do not usually run in the same seats (3 cornered contests). Nationals preferences didnt flow to Liberal candidates because there were no national candidates running in Liberal seats.
In terms of seat numbers, the Liberals actually have a majority in their own right and could govern without the Nationals. The LNP is the Liberal Party's QLD division (Nats are only affiliated to it) and most of its members join the Liberal party room in Canberra.

And many people apparently voted in other parties which gave the Liberals their preferences, but a lot of people aren't aware of that.

In the House, voters have full control of their preferences. Parties don't give other parties their preferences, voters do. Voters can number their preferences how they want.

 

[Rafy]

Re: 2016 Federal Election

Let's terminate the carbon tax/ ETS: Labor Right Faction.
Source: AFR
Elements of Mr Shorten's Right faction broke ranks on Wednesday and said Labor should allow the Coalition to abolish the carbon tax and emissions trading scheme. Former Trade Minister Richard Marles and South Australian MP Nick Champion who survived a strong swing against him in his seat of Wakefield, led calls for Labor to respect Tony Abbott's mandate. "Emissions trading is a system designed by market economists to appease the Greens fundamentalists", Mr Champion remarked. "We shouldn't be surprised that Labor voters don't like it. They don't like markets and they don't like the Greens." added Mr Champion.

Can you imagine the next election if the ALP don't drop their carbon pricing support. The Coalition would have an absolute field day going on about the ALP's plans to reintroduce a carbon tax and raise the cost of living. They'd be mad not to follow the coalition's example in 2007 when the Libs supported the workchoices repeal.

 

[Lolsmith]

Re: 2016 Federal Election

I think there's a definite chance of a Labor win, especially with the disdain for the Liberals already at a high only a week after they've come into power. Plus, the Liberals did not get the 'landslide' of votes they were hoping for - leaving Labor with a chance to be able to swing back next election if people get their heads together and sort out their voting preferences. Based off of first preferences alone, the Liberals only beat Labor because of the National's preferences.

As for the Liberal leader, right now I'm thinking that anyone other than Abbott might at least appear a bit more suited to the job, although the Liberals on a whole are just too conservative and right wing for my tastes. Over the next few years I expect to see a lot more hatred and contempt voiced for Abbott - policies aside, I just don't think he has the ability to represent us on a global scale, and his public speaking qualities are not what you'd expect from a PM.

Of course they wouldn't have won without the Nationals, that's why they're the Liberal National Coalition. EDIT: did not know this:

In terms of seat numbers, the Liberals actually have a majority in their own right and could govern without the Nationals

The Left are always most vocal in their opposition. There isn't as much anger about Tony Abbott than you think, there are just people who are willing to be excruciatingly loud about it. There was similar distain for Gillard and for Rudd, it just wasn't the Left harping on about it like the world was ending. That being said, the demographics you're exposed to (young, very little life experience) generally support more to the 'left' and oppose to the 'right', as you've pointed out is the case for yourself. This is probably why you have this perception of ubiquitous rejection.

Why do his public speaking skills matter (genuine question)? Surely you'd agree that what really matters is if he has the interests of Australia and its people at heart? Whether or not he can just recite a speech well (he definitely won't be writing them, very few politicians do) won't have that much of an impact compared to his negotiations, interests and demands. If he isn't a very good diplomat/politician in terms of negotiation and public policy, he won't go far but his speaking skills won't be all that important.

 

[Sathius005]

Re: 2016 Federal Election

Dear Bill Shorten,
I am advising you that the ALP should terminate the carbon tax/ ETS because I believe it is in the national interest. ALP Climate change politics has been discredited and rejected by the Australian people. I highly suggest you respect Tony Abbott's mandate to get rid of the carbon tax/ ETS. Climate change is absolute crap. We need a stronger economy not a better environment. I don't care about future generations I want my quality of life to get better/ not get worse. I believe if there is a conflict between the economy and the environment the economy should prevail. We need to make our economy stronger and enhance international competitiveness. I have no respect for the crappy environmental fundamentalists called the Australian Greens Party. I encourage you make the best judgement call for Australia and make our economy stronger.

 

[townie]

Dear Bill Shorten,
I am advising you that the ALP should terminate the carbon tax/ ETS because I believe it is in the national interest. ALP Climate change politics has been discredited and rejected by the Australian people. I highly suggest you respect Tony Abbott's mandate to get rid of the carbon tax/ ETS. Climate change is absolute crap. We need a stronger economy not a better environment. I don't care about future generations I want my quality of life to get better/ not get worse. I believe if there is a conflict between the economy and the environment the economy should prevail. We need to make our economy stronger and enhance international competitiveness. I have no respect for the crappy environmental fundamentalists called the Australian Greens Party. I encourage you make the best judgement call for Australia and make our economy stronger.

Lol, such a sell out

 

[Lolsmith]

Re: 2016 Federal Election

Lol, such a sell out

You know you're talking to a troll/mentally ill person right

 

[Lentern]

Re: 2016 Federal Election

Labor can win and can with big if they kick their crippling association with the unions and the labour movement and become a modern social democratic party. The role of the unions in 21st century Australia is not significant for the Labor party to win government while operating as the parliamentary wing of the trade unions movement. Sadly the only senior politician who seems remotely aware of this is being urged by his colleagues to leave parliament altogether. Bowen is Labor's best chance at the next election because he gets the need for Labor to debrand as a unions party but he doesn't have the personal popularity to unseat a first term government. Given that Paul Howes appears to have just secured Bob Carr's senate seat though I'd say that things are going to get worse for Labor before they get better.

 

[Rafy]

Re: 2016 Federal Election

Gillard writing in the Guardian today:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/13/julia-gillard-labor-purpose-future

 

[townie]

Labor can win and can with big if they kick their crippling association with the unions and the labour movement and become a modern social democratic party. The role of the unions in 21st century Australia is not significant for the Labor party to win government while operating as the parliamentary wing of the trade unions movement. Sadly the only senior politician who seems remotely aware of this is being urged by his colleagues to leave parliament altogether. Bowen is Labor's best chance at the next election because he gets the need for Labor to debrand as a unions party but he doesn't have the personal popularity to unseat a first term government. Given that Paul Howes appears to have just secured Bob Carr's senate seat though I'd say that things are going to get worse for Labor before they get better.

Hypothetical chicken/egg scenario in terms of union involvement in the party, perhaps it's possible, desirable even for the unions to reform themselves first - this would then flow onto the Labor party. I personally think there are great benefits to be had with a more respected, trusted and democratic union movement.

Just a thought that occurred to me recently.

 

[Lentern]

Re: 2016 Federal Election

Hypothetical chicken/egg scenario in terms of union involvement in the party, perhaps it's possible, desirable even for the unions to reform themselves first - this would then flow onto the Labor party. I personally think there are great benefits to be had with a more respected, trusted and democratic union movement.

Just a thought that occurred to me recently.

I think it'd no doubt be beneficial for the unions to reform the kind of bully boy culture for which they've rightly or wrongly acquired a reputation and I want to see an influential union movement in Australia but it will drag down the left of centre vote if the major left of centre party is seen to be an apparatus of the unions. Too few Australians are unionized for it to be a viable bedrock for a political party of government. Repairing the image of the unions wont magically make the majority of Australians unionists.

 

[soloooooo]

Labor can win and can with big if they kick their crippling association with the unions and the labour movement and become a modern social democratic party. The role of the unions in 21st century Australia is not significant for the Labor party to win government while operating as the parliamentary wing of the trade unions movement. Sadly the only senior politician who seems remotely aware of this is being urged by his colleagues to leave parliament altogether. Bowen is Labor's best chance at the next election because he gets the need for Labor to debrand as a unions party but he doesn't have the personal popularity to unseat a first term government. Given that Paul Howes appears to have just secured Bob Carr's senate seat though I'd say that things are going to get worse for Labor before they get better.

I agree. I suspect Bowen probably will be the next Labor prime minister, it is just a question of timing.

Labor needs to move back to the centre. They've swung too far left into bed with the Greens and this has hurt them.

 

[Sathius005]

Re: 2016 Federal Election

In the words of some political analysts from the mainstream media/ Fairfax press "Tony Abbott is a misogynist, sexist, homophobic prick, a bully, a racist, a liar and is the worst PM in Australian history."

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/welcome-to-the-abbottoir-20130915-2tsrm.html#ixzz2f05u4tyG

 

[Okashi]

In the words of some political analysts from the mainstream media/ Fairfax press "Tony Abbott is a misogynist, sexist, homophobic prick, a bully, a racist, a liar and is the worst PM in Australian history."

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/welcome-to-the-abbottoir-20130915-2tsrm.html#ixzz2f05u4tyG

No Paul Sheehan was obviously quoting a Facebook page. Don't let facts get in the way of your rant though.

 

[soloooooo]

Why do a lot of people reckon Jason Clare should lead?

 

[Lentern]

Re: 2016 Federal Election

I agree. I suspect Bowen probably will be the next Labor prime minister, it is just a question of timing.

Labor needs to move back to the centre. They've swung too far left into bed with the Greens and this has hurt them.

If you're going to say silly things then knock yourself out but don't imply that I've said them by prefacing your silliness with "I agree."