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HSC 2015 MX1 Marathon (archive) (5 Viewers)

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braintic

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Re: HSC 2015 3U Marathon

this shows that humans as a species tend to have a relatively poor probabilistic sense, in that we can't necessarily make fairly accurate predictions about the possibilities of events that can occur, possibly due to the effect of past experiences which cloud our ability to make these correct judgements.
Having taught this a number of times, I can say that the reason people don't predict the answer well for this question is that they focus on themselves. That is, they imagine that THEY THEMSELVES (as part of the group) have to share a birthday with someone else in the group. They don't consider that the shared birthdays might not involve themselves.
 

InteGrand

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Re: HSC 2015 3U Marathon

I checked with another tutor today Integrand, and he reckons you did everything right except for the value of 0.098

P(A|B) = (0.10 x 0.98 )/0.116
Sorry, you're right, the answer is ~0.845. I realised I subbed in a wrong value for Bayes' Theorem.

I said in my original working that "Pr(B|A) = Pr(positive result | person is non-carrier) = 0.098 (from the first part)".

But actually, the first part asked something else; it asked for the probability that a randomly selected result is false positive (without the "| person is non-carrier" part).

What I should have said was Pr(B|A) = Pr(positive result | person is non-carrier) = Pr(test is wrong) = 10% = 0.1.

If you sub. in this value along with the other values I gave into Bayes' Theorem, you get the right answer of 49/58.
 

Kaido

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Re: HSC 2015 3U Marathon

Our teacher said he's going to make a video on these proofs but if you are too impatient :
Label sides of right angled triangle as :











Dayum, cool teacher, does he have videos online?
 

Drsoccerball

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Re: HSC 2015 3U Marathon

Dayum, cool teacher, does he have videos online?
He uploads them to moodle sometimes when we skip something like proofs and things that will take too long in class
We're abit behind we just started the projectile motion chapter
But for extension 2 were starting mechanics probs in like 2 days
 

Drsoccerball

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Re: HSC 2015 3U Marathon

It's hard to show that the constant is if you sub. in an arbitrary value for x, so it's best to sub. in something like , since we know the values of and for x = 0.
The method i did was less of that random subbing so i think the way mine is is legit
 

braintic

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The method i did was less of that random subbing so i think the way mine is is legit
Sorry, your method is unfinished. You have proved the result only for numbers between 0 and pi/2. You now need to prove it for the remainder of the domain.
And there have been a handful of HSC questions that have required specifically the calculus method.
 
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davidgoes4wce

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Re: HSC 2015 3U Marathon

The velocity of a particle is moving in SHM in a straight line v^2 = 4x-x^2, where x is displacement in metres.

c) Find the maximum speed of the particle.


The solution has 4 m/s


My thinking was to let v=0
0= 4x -x^2
0=x(4-x)
x=0,4

The centre is halfway between the points x=0 and x=4, which is x=2.

letting x=2
v^2=2*(4-2)
v^2=4
v=2m/s

This question was from the Grove HSC book
 

photastic

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Re: HSC 2015 3U Marathon

Hmm I also got 2m/s but I found the value of x when a = 0.
 

Ambility

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Re: HSC 2015 3U Marathon

The velocity of a particle is moving in SHM in a straight line v^2 = 4x-x^2, where x is displacement in metres.

c) Find the maximum speed of the particle.


The solution has 4 m/s


My thinking was to let v=0
0= 4x -x^2
0=x(4-x)
x=0,4

The centre is halfway between the points x=0 and x=4, which is x=2.

letting x=2
v^2=2*(4-2)
v^2=4
v=2m/s

This question was from the Grove HSC book
I don't see any problem with that. Looking at the graph of , it does make sense that the velocity is at the maximum of at .
 
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