Cutoffs and how the cohort goes (1 Viewer)

[ohnose]

Greetings fellow HSC comrades I come to you with a question regarding cutoffs.

So my current understanding is that they are based upon fixed standards however, what would happen if say most of the state did not meet that standard but you were still able to do quite well in comparison to everyone else (like within the top 35%)?

 

[addictedtobubbletea]

i thought atars were relative since theyre a rank? so idk if the idea of fixed standards would apply to uni cutoffs (if thats what you're referring to). pretty sure everyone in our year is banking on everyone being collectively unprepared for the hsc for their marks to get scaled up. not entirely sure tho

 

[Disssi]

Greetings fellow HSC comrades I come to you with a question regarding cutoffs.

So my current understanding is that they are based upon fixed standards however, what would happen if say most of the state did not meet that standard but you were still able to do quite well in comparison to everyone else (like within the top 35%)?

I dont think anything’s gonna happen, like @addictedtobubbletea said, your atar is just a rank.

however I do believe the average atar is going to drop significantly this year (the average is like 70 I think)

 

[Trebla]

HSC marks are based on fixed standards. ATAR is based on relative performance in that year. If theoretically this year’s entire cohort was significantly weaker than last year’s then the HSC marks would be lower but ATAR distribution largely similar.

 

[Jojofelyx]

I dont think anything’s gonna happen, like @addictedtobubbletea said, your atar is just a rank.

however I do believe the average atar is going to drop significantly this year (the average is like 70 I think)

the average atar dropping...? The marks can drop sure, because they are a measure of our outcomes not only relative to one another, but relative to past year groups. Eddie woo has made a video on this btw, have a watch of it. A 94 in x1 this year, is objectively better than a 93 in x1 the year prior, this system was introduced a couple of decades ago i believe.

But, atar's wont just drop, because they are calculated off an aggregate of the scaled marks in every subject that you do, the top 10 units (each unit is marked out of 50 scaled marks, these are then tallied up to give you an aggregate), then contribute to the aggregate which 'ranks' you against all the peers in the cohort.

In theory, our year could be absolute schite, with everyone seeming to get like 70s HSC marks and being objectively worse than previous years, BUT there will still be the same amount of students in every 0.05 decimal of the ATAR system, because, as we all know, ATAR is a rank.

 

[addictedtobubbletea]

the average atar dropping...? The marks can drop sure, because they are a measure of our outcomes not only relative to one another, but relative to past year groups. Eddie woo has made a video on this btw, have a watch of it. A 94 in x1 this year, is objectively better than a 93 in x1 the year prior, this system was introduced a couple of decades ago i believe.

But, atar's wont just drop, because they are calculated off an aggregate of the scaled marks in every subject that you do, the top 10 units (each unit is marked out of 50 scaled marks, these are then tallied up to give you an aggregate), then contribute to the aggregate which 'ranks' you against all the peers in the cohort.

In theory, our year could be absolute schite, with everyone seeming to get like 70s HSC marks and being objectively worse than previous years, BUT there will still be the same amount of students in every 0.05 decimal of the ATAR system, because, as we all know, ATAR is a rank.

thats comforting to know, since lots of people have been catastrophising recently about being on track for a particular atar but lowering their expectations since hsc started... does that mean we still have hope of getting a good atar? loll

 

[ohnose]

HSC marks are based on fixed standards. ATAR is based on relative performance in that year. If theoretically this year’s entire cohort was significantly weaker than last year’s then the HSC marks would be lower but ATAR distribution largely similar.

Gotchas so does that mean like the number of Band 6s and E4s awarded would be significantly less than previous years?

 

[Jojofelyx]

thats comforting to know, since lots of people have been catastrophising recently about being on track for a particular atar but lowering their expectations since hsc started... does that mean we still have hope of getting a good atar? loll

If youre relatively better than everyone then you will get the appropriate atar yes. if everyone was to, as you say, become catastrophisingly poopy, then the net difference on atar becomes 0.

But i dont think its going to be linear. There will be people whove taken this opportunity to absolutely sweat out their hsc, 'POTENTIALLY" making getting >97 ATAR extremums more competitive than most years (as in, i think that those people who have put in a lot of effort, this year, could have, potentially, gotten a better ATAR in a previous year because relative to others they have pushed themselves more). I also reckon it would be easier this year to get between 90-97, mainly because these students tend to either be natually smart and do by without much effort, (and even less effort with the circumstances), or they are those people who are determined and so manage to push themselves from high 80s into low 90s, (and again with our circumstance there is a liklihood for these people to be more burnt out). But idk thats just a hypothesis which might be true or it might not.

 

[addictedtobubbletea]

Gotchas so does that mean like the number of Band 6s and E4s awarded would be significantly less than previous years?

oh yeah, i realise now how this might be a problem for academic adjustments especially

 

[addictedtobubbletea]

If youre relatively better than everyone then you will get the appropriate atar yes. if everyone was to, as you say, become catastrophisingly poopy, then the net difference on atar becomes 0.

But i dont think its going to be linear. There will be people whove taken this opportunity to absolutely sweat out their hsc, 'POTENTIALLY" making getting >97 ATAR extremums more competitive than most years (as in, i think that those people who have put in a lot of effort, this year, could have, potentially, gotten a better ATAR in a previous year because relative to others they have pushed themselves more). I also reckon it would be easier this year to get between 90-97, mainly because these students tend to either be natually smart and do by without much effort, (and even less effort with the circumstances), or they are those people who are determined and so manage to push themselves from high 80s into low 90s, (and again with our circumstance there is a liklihood for these people to be more burnt out). But idk thats just a hypothesis which might be true or it might not.

yeah, sucks that covid and lockdown affected different groups of people to different degrees, some even positively! annoying how the naturally smart crammers are probably less affected... but i guess thats life. nesa decided not to cancel the hsc so we in this whether we like it or not i guess

 

[Jojofelyx]

Gotchas so does that mean like the number of Band 6s and E4s awarded would be significantly less than previous years?

This would only be true if the assumption that "no one studied and everyone was super unprepared/unmotivated" was to be a reality. I really dont think it is, as much as the hsc discussion group leads people to believe lol

 

[addictedtobubbletea]

This would only be true if the assumption that "no one studied and everyone was super unprepared/unmotivated" was to be a reality. I really dont think it is, as much as the hsc discussion group leads people to believe lol

do you actually think ? its nice to have some perspective because i was skeptical about it too, but everyone at my school seems to be really unprepared as well

might also be different across the different schools

 

[Jojofelyx]

do you actually think ? its nice to have some perspective because i was skeptical about it too, but everyone at my school seems to be really unprepared as well

might also be different across the different schools

Ive got buddies in a couple places, (mainly because ive hopped around a lot), and they all seem to have kept on top of things. Who knows really, a sample size of 10, or even 100, cant really be extrapolated over to the 60,000 other students lol

 

[addictedtobubbletea]

Ive got buddies in a couple places, (mainly because ive hopped around a lot), and they all seem to have kept on top of things. Who knows really, a sample size of 10, or even 100, cant really be extrapolated over to the 60,000 other students lol

props to you and your mates ! mad respect

 

[dannyo1]

People - if an exam is objectively hard, then NESA will adjust the alignment to reflect this. Nobody has a crystal ball to be able to predict how many people will get a Band 6/E4 for any given course, but you should keep in mind that the performance band distribution has been relatively consistent over the years.

On the topic of ATAR, the whole purpose of scaling is so that the ATAR remains an effective ranking system across the years - even if we all do "worse" in comparison to last years cohort there will still be a set percentage of people achieving each 0.05 increment of the ATAR scale as the ranking system remains the same irrespective of HSC performance. There is a reason that UAC releases a new, unique scaling report every year - they are showing how this year's HSC results were manipulated to preserve the same ranking system used in all the years prior.

Finally, I think that the whole "lockdown means no study" thing is demonstrably overblown: NESA and UAC have both accounted for "pandemic privilege" to the furthest extent possible with their introduction of bonus points for LGA's of concern, COVID Special Considerations for those doing performance/major works and a new EAS category for people whose parents went on Jobkeeper. Not to mention the slew of bonus points individual unis are offering as well.

And remember, even if the notion that a vast majority of the people in the state weren't able to study properly cos of lockdown was true, it would not matter as the scaling process ensures that an individual year group's performance is comparable to other years in terms of ATAR. So, if it was true that everyone was disadvantaged then a valid rank order could still be discerned as it is a (as far as possible) level playing field.

So, if you are worried about your ATAR because you and everyone you know thought the exams were very difficult then don't be - if those exams were inherently difficult in comparison to other years then the scaling will reflect this, ensuring that the only discriminatory factor is each student's academic merit.

 

[ohnose]

People - if an exam is objectively hard, then NESA will adjust the alignment to reflect this. Nobody has a crystal ball to be able to predict how many people will get a Band 6/E4 for any given course, but you should keep in mind that the performance band distribution has been relatively consistent over the years.

On the topic of ATAR, the whole purpose of scaling is so that the ATAR remains an effective ranking system across the years - even if we all do "worse" in comparison to last years cohort there will still be a set percentage of people achieving each 0.05 increment of the ATAR scale as the ranking system remains the same irrespective of HSC performance. There is a reason that UAC releases a new, unique scaling report every year - they are showing how this year's HSC results were manipulated to preserve the same ranking system used in all the years prior.

Finally, I think that the whole "lockdown means no study" thing is demonstrably overblown: NESA and UAC have both accounted for "pandemic privilege" to the furthest extent possible with their introduction of bonus points for LGA's of concern, COVID Special Considerations for those doing performance/major works and a new EAS category for people whose parents went on Jobkeeper. Not to mention the slew of bonus points individual unis are offering as well.

And remember, even if the notion that a vast majority of the people in the state weren't able to study properly cos of lockdown was true, it would not matter as the scaling and alignment processes ensure that an individual year group's performance is comparable to other years, both in terms of ATAR and HSC marks. So, if it was true that everyone was disadvantaged then everyone would be scaled up accordingly so as to preserve the rank order.

So, if you are worried about your ATAR because you and everyone you know thought the exams were very difficult then don't be - if those exams were inherently difficult in comparison to other years then the alignment will reflect this, ensuring that the only discriminatory factor is each student's academic merit.

Legend! Thanks mate