The technical term for the process that you are referring to is alignment. Scaling is a different process that is done by UAC.
Essentially, when a student completes an HSC exam, their paper is then marked. The original mark that is recorded on that paper with no adjustments of any kind is called a raw mark. NESA does not inform students of their raw marks. Raw marks are subsequently aligned, meaning that they are modified/adjusted. This modification/adjustment results in an aligned mark. NESA informs students of their aligned marks as their Examination Marks.
I believe alignment would be different every year, although the difference should not be substantial.
To answer your question, if you achieve a raw mark between 86 and 88 in your Business Studies HSC exam, it is likely that you will receive an Examination Mark that falls in the low to mid 90's region (i.e. band 6). Keep in mind that the Examination Mark constitutes 50% of your HSC mark for Business Studies.
You are not that far from knowing how the HSC mark is determined. The HSC mark is determined by taking the average of the student's Assessment Mark (which you have correctly identified that it is moderated) and Examination Mark.
I hope this helps!