atar estimates based on y11 marks (1 Viewer)

[iloveeggs]

in case anyone else is trying to get an atar estimate based on prelims or their school is giving them one, atar estimates based on y11 marks are bs. y11 is not an accurate estimate of y12 performance, often people end up locking in for y12 and end up doing much better. don't know who needs to hear this but im just putting it out there.

hang in there if you flopped your prelims like a lot of us and just lock in for y12, you will be okay unless you are literally failing stuff (below 50%), in which case you need to seek support from teachers and maybe drop units to make your units more aligned to your goals.

i think i might get one from my school, im gonna update the post with whatever it is and then if someone reminds me i will update post-hsc as to what i actually got. this will be fun i reckon

 

[iloveeggs]

hi people. so i got an atar estimate the other day of 97 to 97.5

this is first of all not even a good representation of my year 11 performance let alone my future marks in y12. let me break down why

• they took my prelim mark from last year for advanced maths and put it against the marks of this year's y11 advanced cohort. the tasks i did were all significantly harder and so advanced maths didn't contribute to my atar as much as it probably should have, it contributed so little it was like at the bottom of the list
• im doing ext 2 in the hsc and they didn't account for that. this will probably boost my atar bc im ranked near the top of my e1 cohort
• they used our raw marks instead of our ranks like bro your y12 exams aren't even a good estimate for hsc difficulty and you're using prelim exams to estimate hsc performance
• im convinced all of these marks are horrifically inflated for a few subjects and if the ppl in my grade and i were realistically in y12, doing our hsc, getting the marks we are getting thats not the atar we would get (me included). as in our raw marks and the final output we got done don't correlate considering how alignment and scaling would work in the hsc.
• they are basically making these estimates based off past y12 cohorts and their results - so the correlation between y11 and y12 marks that they observed. what i want to see is how accurate last year's predictions were. bc someone from the 2023 cohort got an atar of almost 10 points higher than the estimate based on y11 marks.

overall conclusion: these atar estimates are to either gas you up or shock you into working harder, but def not to give you an accurate representation of your y12 performance. do not make career decisions based on these atar estimates. don't drop subjects you enjoy because they "don't contribute much towards your atar". you can and will improve if you put in the hard work or bomb out even if you did well in y11. your school is not nesa, neither is the atar calculator you found online. and nobody here has a crystal ball that can see into the future to determine how will do in the hsc

im actually going to get several of these estimates in y12 so ill update you. this might be kind of embarrassing bc ppl from my school know that im me but for the sake of proving a point im gonna do it anyways.

 

[Solarised]

overall conclusion: these atar estimates are to either gas you up or shock you into working harder

That's legit the point of them lol

 

[iloveeggs]

That's legit the point of them lol

but isn't that misleading considering they are falsely gassing you up or making you feel like you need to drop down to easier subjects for y12? thats my main issue with them, is that they are not truthful or productive. like if i got a 99.95 estimate i should not feel like i need to work any less harder than i did in y11 or if i got a bad estimate that i should drop to easier subjects and get rid of my extracurriculars and what not.

the reason why i say that is bc there is someone that i know of someone who got told to drop a subject they were topping bc in the past the school hasn't gotten good results (bc of small class sizes) and for that reason they are not expected to band 6. but this person is deadass first in course with great results. like what is the logic

also these marks are not accurate to scaling they use raw marks (of our Y11 marks mind you) which can either be inflated or wayy too low depending on the difficulty of the exam. also the content for most courses is very different in y12. in what world is this number supposed to be useful i genuinely don't get it

 

[Solarised]

but isn't that misleading considering they are falsely gassing you up or making you feel like you need to drop down to easier subjects for y12? thats my main issue with them, is that they are not truthful or productive. like if i got a 99.95 estimate i should not feel like i need to work any less harder than i did in y11 or if i got a bad estimate that i should drop to easier subjects and get rid of my extracurriculars and what not.

the reason why i say that is bc there is someone that i know of who got told to drop a subject they were topping bc in the past the school hasn't gotten good results (bc of small class sizes) and for that reason they are not expected to band 6. but this person is deadass first in course with great results. like what is the logic

also these marks are not accurate to scaling they use raw marks (of our Y11 marks mind you) which can either be inflated or wayy too low depending on the difficulty of the exam. also the content for most courses is very different in y12. in what world is this number supposed to be useful i genuinely don't get it

Of course its misleading, but the school doesn't even care, they want whats best for them not for you

 

[iloveeggs]

Of course its misleading, but the school doesn't even care, they want whats best for them not for you

ofc their results mean more to them than their students isn't that the whole point of a school anyways

 

[spiderfan44]

but isn't that misleading considering they are falsely gassing you up or making you feel like you need to drop down to easier subjects for y12? thats my main issue with them, is that they are not truthful or productive. like if i got a 99.95 estimate i should not feel like i need to work any less harder than i did in y11 or if i got a bad estimate that i should drop to easier subjects and get rid of my extracurriculars and what not.

the reason why i say that is bc there is someone that i know of who got told to drop a subject they were topping bc in the past the school hasn't gotten good results (bc of small class sizes) and for that reason they are not expected to band 6. but this person is deadass first in course with great results. like what is the logic

also these marks are not accurate to scaling they use raw marks (of our Y11 marks mind you) which can either be inflated or wayy too low depending on the difficulty of the exam. also the content for most courses is very different in y12. in what world is this number supposed to be useful i genuinely don't get it

you arent even meant to put raw marks into atar calculators, youre meant to put in aligned marks, which are almost always higher than a raw mark