2008 Presidential Election - Obama v McCain (2 Viewers)

[veloc1ty]

palin's job is NOT to capture these floating independent voters. The reason she was put on the rep ticket was because the hardline base of the rep party has always been uncomfortable with McCain. her presence was only intended to satisfy them. Its mcCain himself who is going to appeal to floating independents, not palin.

Isn't it possible that Palin would turn away some of these undecideds though? Especially when, well, McCain might not live out his term?

 

[Iron]

Palin was obviously meant to snag a lot of Hillary's votes. Otherwise id agree with james - looks like only a fairly major foreign policy issue will save McCain now(cmon Russia, Ukraine's right there, you know you want it)

 

[bigboyjames]

Isn't it possible that Palin would turn away some of these undecideds though? Especially when, well, McCain might not live out his term?

don't underestimate american ignorance. anyway, how many people even vote on policy? majority vote on party.

 

[Trefoil]

McCain has decided to pull down his positive ads (that explain why McCain might be better) and spend the next month trying to assassinate Obama's personal character instead. He's going to try and tie him to terrorists, slum lords and colour him as unpatriotic to achieve the bigot vote.

Good luck with that you bitter old man.

 

[Iron]

How do you know that?
I think the first 5ish weeks of McCain's campaign were spent touring poverty areas etc, and the idea was that he would be a new kind of Republican, running a new kind of campaign etc - but it got virtually NO coverage. If he wants any media attention, it seems like he has to attack Obama. Newshour were saying that this is not the campaign McCain and his team wanted, but they feel forced into it because of media bias

 

[Trefoil]

Really? I guess that explains why some McCain aides explained that his plan lately has been to accuse the media of severe bias in everything and to make the rednecks think there's a 'liberal media conspiracy'.

If you can't win your campaign on your own merits, then you're not worth voting for. I'm very glad that all along Obama has been accused of being 'slime' and yet it is his campaign that is designed more for consistency, integrity and inspiration. He did not, for example, pick his VP to win the ticket - he chose it to make him a better president.

Thing is, independents agree with me. Apparently they've reacted fairly badly to negative campaigning in the past, so this is pretty much the last hail marry for McCain.

Anyway, Obama just made a play for Omaha, Nebraska. Nebraska is a strong Republican state but Omaha is a Democrat area in it. Nebraska uses a split system to decide votes instead of winner-takes-all. McCain must be fuming, after having already been forced to pull out of Michigan and defend Indiana.

The average electoral projection for Obama is about 330, and 200 for McCain. You need 270 to win.

The average national polling is about 50% for Obama and about 42% for McCain. That's landslide victory territory, and it has been consistent for about a week now, meaning it's not simply a passing trend.

Apparently by this time in the election, 95% of voters vote for the candidate they currently support, and debates don't change anything. To be honest, I never thought McCain was capable of winning this election, and you can look at Pollyvote for why: http://www.pollyvote.com/

 

[Nebuchanezzar]

Guys, these debates are pretty much inconsequential.

this presidential election, like all others, will not be decided by 100% of the electorate. most of the electorate map has already been conceded to one party, or another (eg: california to the dems, texas to the Reps, etc). In reality, the entire campaign is ONLY about the few % of the electorate that is in the middle, and also happens to reside in a few key "battleground" states. the majority of dem voters will vote dem, even if mickey mouse is their candidate. and the majority of rep voters will vote rep, even if sarah palin is their candidate.

palin's job is NOT to capture these floating independent voters. The reason she was put on the rep ticket was because the hardline base of the rep party has always been uncomfortable with McCain. her presence was only intended to satisfy them. Its mcCain himself who is going to appeal to floating independents, not palin.

All that being said, in the end, "its the economy, stupid". Which rather sinks mccain.no matter which way you look at it. either by blaming reps for presiding over an economic crisis, or by looking at McCain, and his stumbling attempts at understanding economic issues (he admits he doesn't have much of a clue).

If osama bin ladin/al-queda sits still for the next 2 months, Obama wins.
__________________

McCain has apparently given up on Michigan.

 

[Iron]

Yeah, the nature of campaigning has changed so much anyway. Old hats like McCain and Biden do well with the grass roots stuff, 'town hall meetings' etc, but the reality is that any slipup is now on youtube within an hour. Sheilds was saying that more technology has actually created the OPPOSITE of openness, because it scares the shit out of candidates that every word they say is recorded. It makes them unwilling to ever stray off message. Only faceless, extraordinarily disciplined machines like Obama (and Rudd) can avoid the gaffe.
It's a pity because the less human, less engaged, less experienced candidate wins. America is EATING herself

 

[Nebuchanezzar]

That's hot.

 

[_dhj_]

Yeah, the nature of campaigning has changed so much anyway. Old hats like McCain and Biden do well with the grass roots stuff, 'town hall meetings' etc, but the reality is that any slipup is now on youtube within an hour. Sheilds was saying that more technology has actually created the OPPOSITE of openness, because it scares the shit out of candidates that every word they say is recorded. It makes them unwilling to ever stray off message. Only faceless, extraordinarily disciplined machines like Obama (and Rudd) can avoid the gaffe.
It's a pity because the less human, less engaged, less experienced candidate wins. America is EATING herself

To take this notion further, perhaps our level of technology has superseded our generally accepted system of government.

 

[Captin gay]

lol Kevin Rudd

 

[Iron]

You mean democracy?

 

[Captin gay]

Yep it's all over the wirez that McCain is now throwing all his money into an epic negative ad campaign. It will be interesting to see how it plays out with the electorate, considering John Kerry was destroyed partly because he didn't respond to the swiftboat attacks. It could easily backfire, but he has nothing else to lose.

 

[_dhj_]

You mean democracy?

Democracy is an evolving concept, and I am referring to the current embodiment.

 

[Iron]

Yep it's all over the wirez that McCain is now throwing all his money into an epic negative ad campaign. It will be interesting to see how it plays out with the electorate, considering John Kerry was destroyed partly because he didn't respond to the swiftboat attacks. It could easily backfire, but he has nothing else to lose.

Uh Kerry wasted the 'getting to know you' part of his campaign by constantly addressing swiftboat. It was a distraction which cost him. He was totally owned by negative campaigning

 

[Trefoil]

Uh Kerry wasted the 'getting to know you' part of his campaign by constantly addressing swiftboat. It was a distraction which cost him. He was totally owned by negative campaigning

Yep. Kerry lost for two reasons: 1) responding to the negative attacks, 2) he was only really even with Bush.

Now, Obama is neither of these. Obama is level-headed. People have said it's a detriment to him in the past because he doesn't appear passionate, but it's a very good quality to have in a president, and he's not going to sink to McCain's level by responding to these attacks.

Instead, you'll see this: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14283.html

That is: he'll use these attacks to continually change the subject back to the economy, and make McCain look bad in the process.

The second point is that Obama isn't equal with McCain right now - he's way ahead. I expect there might be a slump in polls for him, but it won't close the gap.

 

[Trefoil]

Yeah, the nature of campaigning has changed so much anyway. Old hats like McCain and Biden do well with the grass roots stuff, 'town hall meetings' etc, but the reality is that any slipup is now on youtube within an hour. Sheilds was saying that more technology has actually created the OPPOSITE of openness, because it scares the shit out of candidates that every word they say is recorded. It makes them unwilling to ever stray off message. Only faceless, extraordinarily disciplined machines like Obama (and Rudd) can avoid the gaffe.
It's a pity because the less human, less engaged, less experienced candidate wins. America is EATING herself

I'm sorry but that's false. Anybody clued into this election can tell you that Obama's campaign has been one of the biggest grass roots 'get out there' campaigns in history.

Here's an example: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html

This is evidenced by the fact that Obama declined public financing while McCain took it, so Obama has hundreds of millions in donations to use (half of which comes from average citizens in amounts under $200), while McCain is stuck with his $87 million for the rest of the campaign.

You do so like to try to dehumanise Obama, don't you?

 

[Iron]

Yes? How does the size of his organisation prove that Obama's not elitist?

 

[Trefoil]

You said his campaign isn't grass roots. You were wrong.

I even see the McCain campaign often comment on how Obama is an inspirational and charismatic leader, while anybody covering his events can tell you he actually cares about the people he's talking to.

I can write post after post defending Obama, but in the end I won't change the mind of a bigot like yourself who is convinced McCain is a victim. You no doubt think, to quote McCain, that he's losing because "life isn't fair".

 

[Iron]

? So bitter and clinging to guns and religion. I said Obama's not grass roots, everyday American but Biden and McCain are.

It is unfair. The media decided long ago that it wanted Obama to be president for all of the worst, superficial, feel-good, shallow American reasons. Not even Murdoch can stop it. Disaster for the world.