Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread
Iron said:
I used to share your dogged partisanism Nebs until He arrived, on donkey, hailed by Canberrans with palm leaves. Everything about Turnbull reeks providence. It's like 'I dare you to try and stop me'
No doubt Turnbull is quite a talented politician, his face comes up nicely on camera, he has a relaxed, chipper conversation style, he has a refined tone of voice without being pompous, probably his voice is actually better than Rudd's, he is articulate and he's witty.
He also has a wry awareness of his own shortcomings, I still think that the success of Keating came from his awareness that he was arrogant. On one occasion Dr John shouted at him "You are an arrogant egotist running a one man circus" to which Keating replied "Yeah G'day, my names Paul Keating." The same way the other night Turnbull seemed to have a very strong awareness of how he comes across which goes down well with voters as opposed to this act like a high and mighty so and so in some situations then turn up on Kerry Anne and say that I'm really just a normal bloke. That doesn't work, Turnbull articulates himself as the plebs see him.
Politically he actually seems to have positioned himself where the electorate wants a government. Pro Kyoto, Pro republic, Pro reconcilliation, uncommited either way on workchoices, low taxes, Buckpassess on gay marriage(it's a lose lose issue politically) and he's a business man.
I've allways thought that businessman were effective politicians just because people develop this assumption that they're good with money, as it happens he's very good with money and the current treasurer has the worst oratorical style of any treasurer I've ever seen. A cabinet reshuffle with Emerson, Tanner or Smith moving to treasurer could negate that a bit but you surrender some political capital in changing treasurers as it more or less means you admitting a mistake.
But for all his very electable qualities Mr Turnbull lacks one thing, an appreciation of timing. There is no such thing as a one term government in this day and age, Whitlam comes in shortest as a two term government and the longevity of his premiership was somewhat distorted by extraordinary circumstances to say the least. Every other government have enjoyed several re-elections, and only Howard struggled with his first re-election.
And really, Howard's first premiership was riddled with blunders, Hawke was an inexperienced parliamentarian, Fraser had undermined the constitution, Whitlam went from radical to radical and Menzies was running with a pretty much new party, yet no oppostion could topple them after one term. By contrast since Mr Rudd has entered the public spotlight he's had astronomical approval ratings, he has his list of impressivisms every bit as long as Mr Turnbull's with the distinct advantage that he isn't a relic from an old, unpopular government, Turnbull's position rests heavilly on being able to woo Abbott, Costello, Coonan, Minchin, Nelson and Truss.
Turnbull's chances of winning the next election are low, even if the caucus hands him the reigns, and then what? How tolerant will the Minchin gang be after Turnbull has pretty much abandoned their Thatcherite values for this moderate, social democrat style of opposition. Which is a shame because I've often thought moderate liberals like Snedden and Turnbul were the key to moving this nation to the left, but you never know, theres along time till the next election, Costello or Bishop may end up being the sacrificial lamb allowing Turnbull to re-emerge down the track when the mood on the electorate is more willing for a new government.
