Labor state dominoes set to fall
LABOR is terminal in NSW and on the skids in Victoria as the national political pendulum swings back to the Coalition in the states and territories.
The party would be massacred in NSW if an election were held now, and would struggle to retain power in Victoria, according to the latest Newspolls, conducted exclusively for The Australian during September and last month.
While NSW Premier Nathan Rees would not have expected a major bounce just two months into his term of office, Victorian Premier John Brumby will be shaken by the result.
The Victorian Government has traditionally been state Labor's beach-head, as it has avoided the kind of lurid scandal that has struck some of its interstate counterparts, and the state's economy has remained sound.
IMRE SALUSINSZKY: Bad start for Rees
Voters across the country are ignoring Kevin Rudd's mantra of "co-operative federalism" and are punishing the Prime Minister's state and territory counterparts for their failures in infrastructure, service delivery and economic management.
MIKE STEKETEE: ALP's in a sorry state
If the trend holds and Labor is returned at the federal election due late in 2010, COAG meetings during Mr Rudd's second term could resemble the quarrelsome and frequently unproductive occasions they became when John Howard confronted a solid slate of Labor premiers and chief ministers.
In NSW, the Coalition has a massive two-party-preferred lead over Labor of 56 per cent to 44per cent, while Victoria is too close to call, with Labor leading the Coalition by 51 per cent to 49per cent. Labor's primary support of 29 per cent in NSW is the lowest ever recorded, while in Victoria its primary support of 37per cent is the lowest since the beginning of 2005.
The Newspolls follow Labor's defeat at the West Australian election in September, its near-death experience at the Northern Territory election in August and the loss of its parliamentary majority at last month's ACT election.
They also confirm recent Newspoll results in the other states.
A Newspoll conducted in South Australia between July and September found the Labor Government of Mike Rann in a dead heat with the Opposition, led by Martin Hamilton-Smith.
A Newspoll in Queensland in August and September was also too close to call, with the Labor Government of Anna Bligh leading the newly merged Liberal National Party, led by Lawrence Springborg, by 51 per cent to 49per cent.
The results could not provide a starker contrast to the federal outlook, with the latest Newspoll showing Labor with an eight-point lead over the Coalition in two-party-preferred terms, and 65 per cent of voters satisfied with the way Mr Rudd is doing his job.
It appears that, while the gloss has not come off Mr Rudd, the Labor brand is struggling.
Nor is leadership at state level necessarily the issue, with Mr Rees and Mr Brumby leading their opponents, Ted Baillieu and Barry O'Farrell, as preferred premier.
Voters clearly see benefits in balancing a federal government with state and territory governments of the opposite political complexion.
"All the state governments are suffering from the same thing," ABC election analyst Antony Green said yesterday.
"They no longer have the federal Coalition to run against," he said. "They have to stand on their own two feet and can't blame John Howard any more."
"The Victorian poll shows it's competitive and Labor can come back. The NSW ratings are terminal, unless Rees can leverage his popularity into votes."
The difficulty Labor premiers face is that the economic clouds have darkened: their revenue base is cyclical and relies on transaction duties and payroll taxes.
Figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Monday show house prices in every capital city except Hobart fell in the September quarter, suggesting the states' honey-pots are empty.
NSW Treasurer Eric Roozendaal has revealed the state lapsed into a deficit of $650 million in the first three months of this financial year. Next week, Mr Roozendaal will bring down a mini-budget in which a number of key infrastructure projects will be axed.
South Australian Treasurer Kevin Foley has revealed his state is facing a $220 million investment income shortfall, which threatens to wipe out the $160 million surplus predicted for 2008-09.
Mr Foley will deliver an economic statement in December.
The states are also exposed to the global collapse in equity prices through the self-insurance and superannuation funds they run.
Reports tabled in the Victorian parliament last week revealed a blowout of almost $3 billion in the state's unfunded public service superannuation liabilities.
The economic crisis leaves state governments with little capacity to bribe voters at election time.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24604423-601,00.html
