Lentern
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- 2008
Election s are all about timing I'm telling you. There is no person in the liberal party wh can beat Rudd next election, libs would be best to go with a two term strategy, call the first one a write off but try and deal as much damage as possible to Rudd then thrust their best candidate into the spotlight about twelve months out from the next election. They would lose a landslide but they would lose it anyway and would dramatically increase their second attempt. My fear would be that Turnbull and Nelson-two of their most electable three MP's the third being Costello will be tainted by their lack of success during their time as leaders and the party will look elsewhere to someone else.Trefoil said:That's an amazing homogeneity between pollsters. I believe Newspoll's last poll also had the 55/45 breakdown.
I guess I'm used to American pollsters who have to distinguish between registered voters and likely voters. Australian ones don't need to because we have a superior voting model (compulsory voting).
Newspoll's last poll also put the Rudd vs Turnbull ratio at about 3:1 in Rudd's favour for preferred prime minister. That's almost as bad as Nelson did. You can partially blame that on the economy (although isn't Turnbull meant to be an economic pro?), but it seems that the Liberal brand in general isn't terribly popular right now.
But who else? Hockey seems a bit thuggish when he starts shouting in parliament, Sadly the weight does not become his debating style, I think Rudd would have his number, Abbott couldn't win a raffle, Costello will probably be gone by then, Bishop might just be able to pull it off. She is nowhere near as skilled a polly as Turnbull or Nelson but I think if the two have a Peacock/Howard type rivalry she might become the compromise. I don't think the plagiarism thing will tun an election, four years down the track nobody will care, Al Gore invented the internet, Kevin Rudd's stepdad through him out of his house etc. Those things don't make a difference come election time. She has done alot to buck her ice queen image in recent months on QANDA and GNW and so on, I think she's done quite well but I also fear a Downeresque melt down. The "candid moments" bring her initial success so they get wilder and wilder and suddenly she loses credibility.
Still, Nelson may have a second coming, it happened with Peacock, Howard and Beazley, Nelson never lost an election and he can allways call Rudd's lead a honeymoon period. And none of us really know what Costello is up to, really the only contenders in the liberal party who I can guarrantee will not ever be prime minister are Turnbull, Abbott and Hockey.
Sorry for raving on but I love like a drug speculating about how party leaderships could pan out.