Australian Politics (2 Viewers)

[JUSTINISANGLO]

Is it an election trigger if it's rejected a second time?

Also, I can't tell if you avatar is a light globe or near-naked girl's backside.

Rejected a second time 3 months after initial proposal, yes. It'd be a fucking retarded thing to go to an election on, though.

 

[Rafy]

Yep and they are waiting until after June 18 to reintroduce it. It's pretty clear they want it as a trigger.

 

[Graney]

You're always saying labor is going to use x (quibbling, non)issue to trigger an early election rafy.

Paranoia.

 

[Iron]

also his av is pretty dirty imo

 

[Lentern]

Yep and they are waiting until after June 18 to reintroduce it. It's pretty clear they want it as a trigger.

A winter election? in the wake of the biggest budget deficit in history? With Turnbull LOTO and Hockey shadow treasurer? Why would they? Could there possibly be a worse time? It isn't though the government has actually suffered for the hostile senate either, if they had the numbers the buck really would stop with them.

 

[moll.]

A winter election? in the wake of the biggest budget deficit in history? With Turnbull LOTO and Hockey shadow treasurer? Why would they? Could there possibly be a worse time? It isn't though the government has actually suffered for the hostile senate either, if they had the numbers the buck really would stop with them.

News is only going to get worse for Labor though. If we go further into recession, it'll look like they haven't done anything or the stimulus packages were a useless waste of money. If we recover, hindsight and Coalition representatives will both bring doubt upon whether Rudd got us into debt for nothing.
Time is Rudd's worst enemy at the moment, as Turnbull and co. rally around the "excessive debt" banner and the full effects of the stimulus packages can be thoroughly analysed and debated, both of which will slowly cast doubt upon whether they were worth it. This doubt may not be founded on anything, but it will still exist.

 

[Graney]

I'd definetly expect an election sooner rather than later. The stimulus is still fresh in people's minds and the full despair of recession has yet to hit.

There's little doubt Rudd would win an election now, which is why rafy and co are angsty about an early election. The libs need time. Lots of time. Losing another election will mess them up.

 

[Lentern]

News is only going to get worse for Labor though. If we go further into recession, it'll look like they haven't done anything or the stimulus packages were a useless waste of money. If we recover, hindsight and Coalition representatives will both bring doubt upon whether Rudd got us into debt for nothing.
Time is Rudd's worst enemy at the moment, as Turnbull and co. rally around the "excessive debt" banner and the full effects of the stimulus packages can be thoroughly analysed and debated, both of which will slowly cast doubt upon whether they were worth it. This doubt may not be founded on anything, but it will still exist.

Be that as it may time will also bring some helpfor Rudd. At the moment the coalition are happy to stick by Turnbull, as the election draws nearer and the polls aren't closing fast enough that is when the so called experts will start talking about blood in the water. Nothing good comes from it.


Contemplate this for a moment, well into the GFC Rudd and his funster mates were still getting up to the dispatch box and insisting with gusto that they would not go into deficit. In the blink of an eye they went from admitting a temporary deficit may be neccessary, to acquiring the biggest deficit in history. If this kind of borrowing was neccessary why would the government have fought so hard to deny they needed a deficit? If say 17 billion or less was what was required perhaps but 58? Someone cynical might suggest they are playing politics with the countries finances.

Yes a few hundred million, maybe a couple of billion extra in interest will need to be paid, but by overborrowing now it might be possible to say in 2010, five months out from an election announce that the budget defict has been reduced to just 12 billion and that their projections have the budget being balanced by the 2011-12 budget. And Kevin can get up in the parliament and shout that the nation can be so happy with the state of the budget because "this government chose to be proactive and take positive action rather than the oppositions proposal which was to do nothing."

Compare such a scenario to say a twenty five billion deficit this year, another thirty next year and another twenty five the year after that. Not so politically appealing. This is a classic lower expectations dramatically then appear to sweep towards the election with juggernaut momentum.

For the plebs who don't like my long posts:
-Rudd borows more money then he needs
-Rudd doesn't actually spend it per se he hides it in long term nothing projects
-Rudd moves the hidden money around in subsequent budgets so he can reduce the deficit considerably in an election year
-It looks to the common observer that the government has taken massive strides towards economic recovery, beyond what anyone thought possible.

 

[Lentern]

I'd definetly expect an election sooner rather than later. The stimulus is still fresh in people's minds and the full despair of recession has yet to hit.

There's little doubt Rudd would win an election now, which is why rafy and co are angsty about an early election. The libs need time. Lots of time. Losing another election will mess them up.

There is little doubt the Rudd would win an election anytime in the next two years. There has not been a one term government in post war history and Rudd is hardly the least politically competent candidate either. There is a reason Costello is on the backbench, in his book he actually writes that Beazley was unlucky, he would have been a much more succesfull politician if he'd first come to the leadership in 2006 instead of 1996.

It is the subsequent election Rudd will have trouble winning and the longer he puts off this one the better chance he has of contesting the next one in a boom.

 

[Rafy]

The coalition will go backwards at the next election. The sooner it is held, the worse it will be.

Yes I am extremely angsty about a DD.

 

[whatashotbyseve]

I'd definetly expect an election sooner rather than later. The stimulus is still fresh in people's minds and the full despair of recession has yet to hit.

There's little doubt Rudd would win an election now, which is why rafy and co are angsty about an early election. The libs need time. Lots of time. Losing another election will mess them up.

I can't see how losing an election will mess them up, they are almost resigned to it. I agree with everything else though.

 

[Lentern]

I can't see how losing an election will mess them up, they are almost resigned to it. I agree with everything else though.

Whilst I don't think it will happen the reason losing the election could damage their chances at the subsequent one is derived from a percieved need to change. I tend to think this rationale played a role in Mark Latham's election to the leadership which you know I thought was a dreadful failure. A significant portion of the ALP voters felt that the conventional, small target, stay on message, essentially boring approach that Beazley took was ineffective and in order to win they needed someone who really contrasted with both Beazley and Howard.

I think it was the so called pundit Paul Kelly who said something to the effect of "the people won't be convinced they need to change governments if the ALP don't present themselves as significantly better which they can't do if they aren't significantly different." Well that kind of rationale, a few promises of cabinet posts, a few Malcolm haters and someone like Peter Dutton becomes leader. It's crazy I know but after NSW libs snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with Peter Debnam I'm prepared to make room for the crazy.

 

[Lentern]

Up until now I didn't think the DD was on the cards but even for budget it has seemed the past few days all the big shots pollies have seemed really grissly, unafraid to go for the jugular.

 

[Rafy]

Damn, just as I feared, i think we'll see the coalition backflip on the alcopops tax.

Turnbull quiet on full alcohol tax | Business Breaking News | News.com.au

Although it probably isn't worth holding out and giving the government a DD trigger. After all, the tax increase is around for another 12 months and presumably the government will just keep issuing tarriff excise proposals every year.

Not to mention that opposing the alcopops tax is now largely untenable given the tobacco tax proposal.

 

[Lentern]

Damn, just as I feared, i think we'll see the coalition backflip on the alcopops tax.

Turnbull quiet on full alcohol tax | Business Breaking News | News.com.au

Although it probably isn't worth holding out and giving the government a DD trigger. After all, the tax increase is around for another 12 months and presumably the government will just keep issuing tarriff excise proposals every year.

Not to mention that opposing the alcopops tax is now largely untenable given the tobacco tax proposal.

Surely they wouldn't use alcopos as a trigger? That is the kind of thing the public will great with great cynicism. The budget or stimulus possibly but alcopops?

 

[Silver Persian]

I think the Carbon Emiisions Trading scheme is a more likely DD trigger, as the journalist on QANDA suggested last night.

 

[Iron]

A further tobacco tax? A tax?
Weak.

Let Turnbull be Turnbull

 

[Lentern]

A further tobacco tax? A tax?
Weak.

Let Turnbull be Turnbull

Elaborate? It seemed the kind of thing the dry liberal machine men would absolutely hate.

 

[Iron]

Turnbull is awesome on a stick, but I feel that he's running to the middle of the road for cover and i..

...out vile jelly!

 

[Lentern]

Turnbull is awesome on a stick, but I feel that he's running to the middle of the road for cover and i..

...out vile jelly!

Interesting. I've allways imagined Turnbull the kind of moderate that could be in just about either party whose big problem would be placating the conservative liberals. The "socialist" line he keeps drumming up for example sounds like a silly strategy to prove he is a real liberal.

I agree Turnbull acting natural is a formidable political force but I think he's in more danger of going out to bat for things he doesn't believe in to placate the conservatives (people smuggling for example). Its not convincing and trying to shift the centre is an ineffective strategy from opposition anyway. Generally speaking though I think he's managing himself very well.