HSC atar calculator (2 Viewers)

[Momentazeus]

This question has probably been asked a hundred times but what is the most reliable atar calculator? When I put marks into HSC ninja, they tend to be higher than matrix so I don't know.

 

[Run hard@thehsc]

This question has probably been asked a hundred times but what is the most reliable atar calculator? When I put marks into HSC ninja, they tend to be higher than matrix so I don't know.

I would trust matrix as I believe it gives you the lowest possible ATAR ?

 

[bruhwth]

I would trust matrix as I believe it gives you the lowest possible ATAR ?

idk cause i put in a friends hsc marks and talent calc was only off by 0.1. We also put in some of our other friends hsc marks (grad. 2021) and talent calc was around 0.1-0.5ish off. Matrix lowballed by like 1-2 points lmao

 

[carrotsss]

I’d rather go with matrix to not get your hopes up lol

 

[strawbinnie]

I would trust matrix as I believe it gives you the lowest possible ATAR ?

but when it says to put in hsc marks, what mark are u meant to put? or where do u find ur hsc mark?

 

[carrotsss]

but when it says to put in hsc marks, what mark are u meant to put? or where do u find ur hsc mark?

You don’t know your hsc mark, but there are a few ways to estimate it:

• Get your trials mark and go to https://rawmarks.info/ to get a general idea of the hsc mark that that would convert to
• Find the number of band 6s your school gets in a subject on average every year (can be done with hscninja honour roll) and then make a rough estimate of what mark you’d be getting based on your ranking (i.e if ur school gets 10 band 6s per year in a subject and you’re rank 10, a hsc mark of 90 would be a safe guess)

Neither method is anywhere close to perfect though, so don’t get too overconfident or disappointed by the estimated atar.

 

[c_z_m]

I personally don't find Matrix to be an accurate ATAR calculator, my ATAR was really off when I typed my HSC marks. Talent got within 0.25 of my ATAR so it has its merit. Talent uses the previous year's data, calculates each courses' scaled marks, finds the aggregate score, to output an ATAR so that's probably why. HSCninja is a useful tool for see how 'good' your mark would be in different years, but, alas, it is pretty outdated.

 

[c_z_m]

but when it says to put in hsc marks, what mark are u meant to put? or where do u find ur hsc mark?

HSC mark doesn't arrive until your HSC papers have been marked. It's a fun, relaxing wait.
You could 'guesstimate' your marks but considering your HSC is basically 20 days away, it might be a better idea to leave the ATAR calculations for later...

 

[strawbinnie]

You don’t know your hsc mark, but there are a few ways to estimate it:

• Get your trials mark and go to https://rawmarks.info/ to get a general idea of the hsc mark that that would convert to
• Find the number of band 6s your school gets in a subject on average every year (can be done with hscninja honour roll) and then make a rough estimate of what mark you’d be getting based on your ranking (i.e if ur school gets 10 band 6s per year in a subject and you’re rank 10, a hsc mark of 90 would be a safe guess)

Neither method is anywhere close to perfect though, so don’t get too overconfident or disappointed by the estimated atar.

super curious if anyone who's estimated their atar using the above methods before they got their hsc marks were any close to their actual atar?

 

[carrotsss]

super curious if anyone who's estimated their atar using the above methods before they got their hsc marks were any close to their actual atar?

Honestly probably not, it’s hard to estimate because obviously it depends on how much work you put in for the actual hsc. It’s nothing more than a rough guide of where you might be headed, and your actual atar depends on way more factors.

 

[pikachu975]

This question has probably been asked a hundred times but what is the most reliable atar calculator? When I put marks into HSC ninja, they tend to be higher than matrix so I don't know.

This is my experience from plugging in my actual HSC marks the day before ATAR came out.

From memory Matrix gave me the best estimate (it said around 99.7), Talent 100/HSC Ninja said 99.9 approximately. Honestly not even sure if Matrix calc existed in 2017 (probably) but I just know that Talent 100 definitely overestimated it.

Another side note is I think they vary in accuracy depending on how high of an ATAR you're trying to estimate.

 

[pikachu975]

super curious if anyone who's estimated their atar using the above methods before they got their hsc marks were any close to their actual atar?

I sorta used it for English, as my school got around 10 band 6's the previous year, and I was rank 6. So I estimated my HSC mark to be around 92-93 but obviously your performance on the day matters.

Didn't really use that method for the other subjects though as I was ranked 1st, and in that case you decide your own mark so past stats don't matter. They only really give you a guide when you're not 1st because you can get a general idea of your INTERNAL mark.

 

[Trebla]

It’s hard to make any generalisation on “reliability” when the level of uncertainty is quite high for something the users want good precision for. At the end of the day they’re just using mathematical models based on very limited data points available to the public. In that regard, none of the calculators would pass as being “reliable” in a scientific context.

ATAR calculators face a problem where they literally have like only 5 publicly available data points (which are not evenly spaced apart) to guess a distribution curve of scaled marks in a subject. That guess might be close to the actual marks in some range and far away in other ranges. Either way, no one knows how good the guess is unless they have every student’s data in front of them. Like if you flipped a coin and I guessed it correctly to be heads does that mean my guess is “reliable”? No. You can’t really conclude anything unless you have a lot of real data where I keep guessing it correctly (i.e. a large unbiased sample).