Lockdown (1 Viewer)

[Ledepressedrightnow]

What are the chances that we go back into lockdown?

 

[jimmysmith560]

Based on what Scott Morrison stated very recently, it seems that chances that we go back into lockdown are low:

“The time for that heavy hand is behind us. [It is] the time for knowing and trusting Australians who have proven themselves with one of the highest vaccination rates in the world. We have to move from a culture of mandates to a culture of responsibility. That’s how we live with this virus into the future.“

“Australians know what is a common sense, responsible action to look after their own health and to look after the health of those around them. We’ve got to treat Australians like adults. And we all have our own responsibility in our communities and for our own health.”​

 

[nzexperiment]

Powers over lockdown inherently lies upon state governments so it really depends on your state government. For example, some areas of the NT is currently under a lockdown. Given the recent language and stance of the NSW Premier, I would say that it is highly unlikely for NSW to go back into lockdown unless there are dramatic unprecedented developments.

 

[dasfas]

Idk, I don't think it's likely unless deaths start increasing. We're super highly vaxxed so I don't think it would be worth locking things down once again.

 

[dasfas]

Based on what Scott Morrison stated very recently, it seems that chances that we go back into lockdown are low:

“The time for that heavy hand is behind us. [It is] the time for knowing and trusting Australians who have proven themselves with one of the highest vaccination rates in the world. We have to move from a culture of mandates to a culture of responsibility. That’s how we live with this virus into the future.“

“Australians know what is a common sense, responsible action to look after their own health and to look after the health of those around them. We’ve got to treat Australians like adults. And we all have our own responsibility in our communities and for our own health.”​

Honestly, this is the first time Scomo has said something that is vaguely charismatic

some areas of the NT is currently under a lockdown.

wtf they have 16 cases, that's ridiculous

 

[DarkOperator618]

What are the chances that we go back into lockdown?

I'm in India so I'm a bit out of the loop

why is there no lockdown with 3k cases and no restrictions

literally 12 ppl tested positive from formal (not me)

 

[jazz519]

I'm in India so I'm a bit out of the loop

why is there no lockdown with 3k cases and no restrictions

literally 12 ppl tested positive from formal (not me)

Because the benefit now of doing another lockdown probably outweighs the negatives due to it, such as further damage to the economy, worse education due to online learning, job losses etc.

The government stance is around the long term response to COVID and cases. The main thing in terms of most people getting vaccines has already happened (like 90 something percent in NSW) and so going into a new lockdown long term will have no benefit as there is no solution that will remove COVID entirely. As soon as the lockdown is lifted again the cases will rise again and then comes the question of how practical is it to lockdown and open up over and over. So instead of locking down again, they are encouraging people to try reduce their own risk by being responsible, getting booster shot. So basically getting used to living with the COVID being around and trying to return to as normal as possible given the circumstances

 

[DarkOperator618]

Because the benefit now of doing another lockdown probably outweighs the negatives due to it, such as further damage to the economy, worse education due to online learning, job losses etc.

The government stance is around the long term response to COVID and cases. The main thing in terms of most people getting vaccines has already happened (like 90 something percent in NSW) and so going into a new lockdown long term will have no benefit as there is no solution that will remove COVID entirely. As soon as the lockdown is lifted again the cases will rise again and then comes the question of how practical is it to lockdown and open up over and over. So instead of locking down again, they are encouraging people to try reduce their own risk by being responsible, getting booster shot. So basically getting used to living with the COVID being around and trying to return to as normal as possible given the circumstances

does that mean that the government will bank on any super spreader events not happening (like protests)?

 

[jazz519]

does that mean that the government will bank on any super spreader events not happening (like protests)?

Not sure to be honest, but basically government is focusing on the hospitalisations rather than case numbers. Unless the hospitals get overwhelmed with patients probably not going to be any strict lockdowns like before

 

[DarkOperator618]

Not sure to be honest, but basically government is focusing on the hospitalisations rather than case numbers. Unless the hospitals get overwhelmed with patients probably not going to be any strict lockdowns like before

cases seem to be increasing from my formal

I'm all good tho

 

[dasfas]

We need to stop focusing on cases since we're all vaccinated. Cases are important, yes, but not a good metric anymore. We should be looking at hospitalisations. If that increases and overwhelms the hospitals, then we might have to have a conversation about locking down again. Otherwise, it shouldn't be an issue.

 

[nzexperiment]

We need to stop focusing on cases since we're all vaccinated. Cases are important, yes, but not a good metric anymore. We should be looking at hospitalisations. If that increases and overwhelms the hospitals, then we might have to have a conversation about locking down again. Otherwise, it shouldn't be an issue.

hospitalisation always has a lag upon cases and you need cases to have hospitalisation so naturally an increase in cases can be inferred as an increase in hospitalisation in the near future

 

[dasfas]

hospitalisation always has a lag upon cases and you need cases to have hospitalisation so naturally an increase in cases can be inferred as an increase in hospitalisation in the near future

Yes, but the correlation between cases and hospitalisation is decreasing, so saying we are reaching record high cases isn't actually that bad if hospitalisations stay low.

 

[nzexperiment]

Yes, but the correlation between cases and hospitalisation is decreasing, so saying we are reaching record high cases isn't actually that bad if hospitalisations stay low.

we dont know that as we have little research surrounding the omnicron variant as of now which is the dominant variant in NSW

 

[dasfas]

we dont know that as we have little research surrounding the omnicron variant as of now which is the dominant variant in NSW

Actually we finally do have some good quality evidence that omicron carries a lower risk with regards to rate of hospitalisation.

Omicron cases less likely to require hospital treatment, studies show

Data from Denmark, South Africa and the UK point to reduced severity from infection with the coronavirus strain

www.ft.com

 

[nzexperiment]

Actually we finally do have some good quality evidence that omicron carries a lower risk with regards to rate of hospitalisation.

Omicron cases less likely to require hospital treatment, studies show

Data from Denmark, South Africa and the UK point to reduced severity from infection with the coronavirus strain

www.ft.com

View attachment 34508

good to know but it is important to note that this is still early day reasearch:

“The lower risk or lower proportions of severe disease we’re seeing in the fourth wave could be due to a number of factors including the level of prior immunity from people who’ve already gotten vaccinated or had natural infection, or it could also be due to the intrinsic virulence of Omicron,” said Dr Waasila Jassat, of the NICD.

“But we need more studies to be able to unpack these things,” she said.

South African data suggests Omicron outbreak has caused less severe disease

Scientists warn, however, that lower severity of cases is not fully understood and may not occur elsewhere

www.theguardian.com

 

[nzexperiment]

Actually we finally do have some good quality evidence that omicron carries a lower risk with regards to rate of hospitalisation.

Omicron cases less likely to require hospital treatment, studies show

Data from Denmark, South Africa and the UK point to reduced severity from infection with the coronavirus strain

www.ft.com

View attachment 34508

Another thing to note is that even though there appears to be a lower hospitalisation rate, given that omnicron is more infectious it is spreading to more people so essentially more people could end up in hospital. Like eg:

Delta 2.3% hospitalisation rate and there were 100 cases, we'd have about 2 people in hospital.
If Omicron has 1% hospitalisation rate but we have 1000 cases, we'll have 10 people in hospital.

Note that at the peak of our delta outbreak we had about 1800ish cases a day and rn we are at 5.7k cases.

In saying that it is important to consider the pre vaccinated society we were in during the second outbreak (delta) compared to our 94.9% vaxxed (at least 1 dose) society we are in now which could reduce the severity of the disease as a whole. (effectiveness of covid vaccine upon omnicron is still yet to be thoroughly researched though)

 

[dasfas]

Another thing to note is that even though there appears to be a lower hospitalisation rate, given that omnicron is more infectious it is spreading to more people so essentially more people could end up in hospital. Like eg:

Delta 2.3% hospitalisation rate and there were 100 cases, we'd have about 2 people in hospital.
If Omicron has 1% hospitalisation rate but we have 1000 cases, we'll have 10 people in hospital.

Note that at the peak of our delta outbreak we had about 1800ish cases a day and rn we are at 5.7k cases.

In saying that it is important to consider the pre vaccinated society we were in during the second outbreak (delta) compared to our 94.9% vaxxed (at least 1 dose) society we are in now which could reduce the severity of the disease as a whole. (effectiveness of covid vaccine upon omnicron is still yet to be thoroughly researched though)

You are right. We need a metric (shouldn't be too hard to calculate) that includes both rate of hospitalisation with transmissibility. And yes, we don't know yet how effective the vaccines are against severe disease from omicron, but so far it seems to be holding up.

Also the graph I linked claimed to account for vaccination/prior immunity etc.. so it's more a reflection of the severity of omicron as a whole.

 

[cosmo 2]

omni corn is just cold 2.0

its absolutely nothing, if you are afraid of getting it vaccinated or not you are a faggot

 

[[ ]]

omni corn is just cold 2.0

its absolutely nothing, if you are afraid of getting it vaccinated or not you are a faggot

The scary part of covid is the possible long-term effects.

Loss of taste, Neurasthenia, Heart rate failure, dyspnea, mental illness (including depression), loss of memory, and pneumonia. And I am not putting myself and my family at the risk of getting any of these things.