Inspired by powlmao’s similar thread on the subject and in response to the increasing amount of ATAR estimates on this site, I have decided to put together a guide for all those seeking an estimate.
What information do I need to provide for an estimate?
Necessary information
1)Your subject ranks (NOT your raw percentages)
2)Your school rank
An estimate cannot be made without these two pieces of information. The reason for this is as follows:
Your subject rankings: Ranks are what will be used to calculate your internal marks. Your raw internal percentages don’t really mean much, as they are moderated according to your ranks and external results. For more on the minutiae of moderation, see the Board of Studies explanation of the process here: http://www.boardofstudies.nsw.edu.au/hsc-results/moderation.html. Also, this might seem like a no-brainer, but put how many people are in each of your subjects - 2nd out of 10 is different to 2nd out of 60.
Your school rank: School rank is needed as it helps us put your marks into perspective. For example, a person coming first in Extension 1 maths at James Ruse is probably going to state rank in the subject, whereas a person coming first in this subject at a school ranked 400th in the state will probably only get a band 5.
Other information which can help but is NOT necessary:
- Trial marks
- ATAR statistics from your school
- How many people at your school get over 90 in each subject
- School ranks from more than one year
- Any other information you think is pertinent
Trial marks: Trial marks can help give us an idea of how strong you are in the subject, as they match the format of your final exams. Trial marks in science and especially maths subjects are extremely useful; as marking standards are usually consistent from school to school (your answers are generally right or wrong). However, for English and humanities subjects, they are less useful, as marking standards can vary from school to school. This is because often times, some school markers (who are not HSC markers), are unaware of what exactly the HSC markers are looking for, and mark with different standards, which reduces the usefulness of these trial marks. However, if you have them they are still worth providing.
ATAR statistics from your school: This includes information like the highest ATAR from your schools previous cohort, or how many people get over 90. It can also include the median/average ATAR from the previous cohort. This information is more useful for people who go to a low ranking school; as it can help us to see whether your school has outliers who do significantly better than everyone else. However, it is also useful for most other schools as well.
How many people at your school get a band 6 in each subject: This can help us determine in which subjects you are likely to get a band 6, as it can show us your schools strengths and weaknesses. For instance, my old High school was strong in maths, with about 20% of the cohort getting a band 6 in 2 unit. However, we were weak in English and were lucky to have one person per year get a band 6.
School ranks from more than one year: This can help show us if your school rank is stable or volatile, which can change the way we estimate
Any other information you think is pertinent: Put simply, the more information we have the stronger your estimate will be. If you’re not sure whether something is relevant, include it anyway and let us judge whether it is or not.
Reliability of an estimate
An ATAR estimate is just that, an estimate. ATAR estimates, whether given on this site or by your school are generally unreliable. The main reasons for this are as follows:
- There is no definitive way of converting ranks and a school rank into an ATAR.
- The school rank is taken from the previous cohort and it’s possible that one cohort will perform better or worse than another. For some schools, there rankings stay stable whilst others can vary significantly.
- Your rankings only apply to your internal marks which count for 50% of the HSC. Some students will do proportionally better in their final exams then they did internally and vice-versa. Obviously, we cannot predict if this will happen
However, despite the fact that they are unreliable, an ATAR estimate can still be of some use. An ATAR estimate can give you a general idea of what you might get based on the information your provide us.
How do estimators come to their estimate?
Generally speaking, most estimators will use your school rank to put your subject ranks into perspective and then arrive at an estimate. They will also take any other information you provide into account. Personally, I use my own ATAR/school ranks, plus the ATAR/school ranks of my friends and others I know to gauge what your ranks/school rank could give you.
Some people convert your ranks into a mark for each subject and put it into an ATAR calculator.
The impact of your school
Your school rank has NO impact on your ATAR, but the strength of your cohort does. This topic is very contentious, and there are other threads on this site which go into detail on it, so I am not going to go into a big spiel about it.
Put simply, the biggest determinant of a student’s ATAR is the student themselves. Just because you go to a school ranked 500th in the state, doesn’t mean you are doomed to a poor ATAR – there are many users on this site who went to poor ranking schools and have done extremely well.
Low ranked school estimates
Generally speaking, estimates from low ranking schools (ranked under 450) are much more difficult to do than others. This is mainly because the average ATAR of such schools varies quite a bit and little is known about how they perform. Also some have outliers who do extremely well whilst with others have people sitting on above average ATAR’s (80’s).
If you are coming first in most of your subjects, you will often get a broad estimate accompanied by the line “it depends on the externals”. This is because as you are coming first in many subjects, your marks will be determined by your externals (if you read the attached link, you will note that the person who comes first internally gets the highest external mark as their internal).
Who gives the best estimates?
As mentioned before, an ATAR estimate is just that, an estimate. Don’t limit yourself to getting an estimate from one person/user. Getting a wide variety of opinions from different users will net you the best result.
Another important point to remember is that a school estimate is no more reliable than an estimate from this site (in my opinion, we are better at it then most schools, but that is another issue). The school doesn’t have a magic method of getting your ATAR, as their method is similar to ours. So if you have a school estimate, don’t give it more value than one from this site.
ATAR calculators
ATAR calculators deal in final marks so putting in your raw percentages is useless and will get you nowhere. The calculators are only useful on the day before the ATAR’s are released and to see what final marks are needed for approximately what ATAR.
Conclusion/other information
As mentioned before, an ATAR estimate is just that, an estimate. If your estimate is lower then you expected, don’t get disheartened and give up, because our estimates are far from accurate or absolute. Last year, there was one person who asked for an estimate, and got a consensus opinion (including me) of low 80’s. She ended up getting somewhere in the mid-90’s.
By the same token, don’t become complacent if your estimate is better than you expected – one person last year PM’d me for an estimate and I said something that was a lot higher than what they expected. They replied to me saying “wow that’s so much higher than I expected, I guess that means I can take it easy now”. This attitude is dangerous and will put you in a perilous position.
Also, when making a thread on the topic, try to make it need and tidy so we can clearly see the necessary information and other details. Some threads are messy and it’s difficult to tell what’s what.
If anyone thinks I’ve missed anything, gotten something wrong or missed something in this guide, please feel free to post it below and I will change it as necessary. I have probably forgotten some things so I will probably add to this guide at some point. Also, if anyone has any questions about this guide, please make a post below and I or someone else will get back to you.
What information do I need to provide for an estimate?
Necessary information
1)Your subject ranks (NOT your raw percentages)
2)Your school rank
An estimate cannot be made without these two pieces of information. The reason for this is as follows:
Your subject rankings: Ranks are what will be used to calculate your internal marks. Your raw internal percentages don’t really mean much, as they are moderated according to your ranks and external results. For more on the minutiae of moderation, see the Board of Studies explanation of the process here: http://www.boardofstudies.nsw.edu.au/hsc-results/moderation.html. Also, this might seem like a no-brainer, but put how many people are in each of your subjects - 2nd out of 10 is different to 2nd out of 60.
Your school rank: School rank is needed as it helps us put your marks into perspective. For example, a person coming first in Extension 1 maths at James Ruse is probably going to state rank in the subject, whereas a person coming first in this subject at a school ranked 400th in the state will probably only get a band 5.
Other information which can help but is NOT necessary:
- Trial marks
- ATAR statistics from your school
- How many people at your school get over 90 in each subject
- School ranks from more than one year
- Any other information you think is pertinent
Trial marks: Trial marks can help give us an idea of how strong you are in the subject, as they match the format of your final exams. Trial marks in science and especially maths subjects are extremely useful; as marking standards are usually consistent from school to school (your answers are generally right or wrong). However, for English and humanities subjects, they are less useful, as marking standards can vary from school to school. This is because often times, some school markers (who are not HSC markers), are unaware of what exactly the HSC markers are looking for, and mark with different standards, which reduces the usefulness of these trial marks. However, if you have them they are still worth providing.
ATAR statistics from your school: This includes information like the highest ATAR from your schools previous cohort, or how many people get over 90. It can also include the median/average ATAR from the previous cohort. This information is more useful for people who go to a low ranking school; as it can help us to see whether your school has outliers who do significantly better than everyone else. However, it is also useful for most other schools as well.
How many people at your school get a band 6 in each subject: This can help us determine in which subjects you are likely to get a band 6, as it can show us your schools strengths and weaknesses. For instance, my old High school was strong in maths, with about 20% of the cohort getting a band 6 in 2 unit. However, we were weak in English and were lucky to have one person per year get a band 6.
School ranks from more than one year: This can help show us if your school rank is stable or volatile, which can change the way we estimate
Any other information you think is pertinent: Put simply, the more information we have the stronger your estimate will be. If you’re not sure whether something is relevant, include it anyway and let us judge whether it is or not.
Reliability of an estimate
An ATAR estimate is just that, an estimate. ATAR estimates, whether given on this site or by your school are generally unreliable. The main reasons for this are as follows:
- There is no definitive way of converting ranks and a school rank into an ATAR.
- The school rank is taken from the previous cohort and it’s possible that one cohort will perform better or worse than another. For some schools, there rankings stay stable whilst others can vary significantly.
- Your rankings only apply to your internal marks which count for 50% of the HSC. Some students will do proportionally better in their final exams then they did internally and vice-versa. Obviously, we cannot predict if this will happen
However, despite the fact that they are unreliable, an ATAR estimate can still be of some use. An ATAR estimate can give you a general idea of what you might get based on the information your provide us.
How do estimators come to their estimate?
Generally speaking, most estimators will use your school rank to put your subject ranks into perspective and then arrive at an estimate. They will also take any other information you provide into account. Personally, I use my own ATAR/school ranks, plus the ATAR/school ranks of my friends and others I know to gauge what your ranks/school rank could give you.
Some people convert your ranks into a mark for each subject and put it into an ATAR calculator.
The impact of your school
Your school rank has NO impact on your ATAR, but the strength of your cohort does. This topic is very contentious, and there are other threads on this site which go into detail on it, so I am not going to go into a big spiel about it.
Put simply, the biggest determinant of a student’s ATAR is the student themselves. Just because you go to a school ranked 500th in the state, doesn’t mean you are doomed to a poor ATAR – there are many users on this site who went to poor ranking schools and have done extremely well.
Low ranked school estimates
Generally speaking, estimates from low ranking schools (ranked under 450) are much more difficult to do than others. This is mainly because the average ATAR of such schools varies quite a bit and little is known about how they perform. Also some have outliers who do extremely well whilst with others have people sitting on above average ATAR’s (80’s).
If you are coming first in most of your subjects, you will often get a broad estimate accompanied by the line “it depends on the externals”. This is because as you are coming first in many subjects, your marks will be determined by your externals (if you read the attached link, you will note that the person who comes first internally gets the highest external mark as their internal).
Who gives the best estimates?
As mentioned before, an ATAR estimate is just that, an estimate. Don’t limit yourself to getting an estimate from one person/user. Getting a wide variety of opinions from different users will net you the best result.
Another important point to remember is that a school estimate is no more reliable than an estimate from this site (in my opinion, we are better at it then most schools, but that is another issue). The school doesn’t have a magic method of getting your ATAR, as their method is similar to ours. So if you have a school estimate, don’t give it more value than one from this site.
ATAR calculators
ATAR calculators deal in final marks so putting in your raw percentages is useless and will get you nowhere. The calculators are only useful on the day before the ATAR’s are released and to see what final marks are needed for approximately what ATAR.
Conclusion/other information
As mentioned before, an ATAR estimate is just that, an estimate. If your estimate is lower then you expected, don’t get disheartened and give up, because our estimates are far from accurate or absolute. Last year, there was one person who asked for an estimate, and got a consensus opinion (including me) of low 80’s. She ended up getting somewhere in the mid-90’s.
By the same token, don’t become complacent if your estimate is better than you expected – one person last year PM’d me for an estimate and I said something that was a lot higher than what they expected. They replied to me saying “wow that’s so much higher than I expected, I guess that means I can take it easy now”. This attitude is dangerous and will put you in a perilous position.
Also, when making a thread on the topic, try to make it need and tidy so we can clearly see the necessary information and other details. Some threads are messy and it’s difficult to tell what’s what.
If anyone thinks I’ve missed anything, gotten something wrong or missed something in this guide, please feel free to post it below and I will change it as necessary. I have probably forgotten some things so I will probably add to this guide at some point. Also, if anyone has any questions about this guide, please make a post below and I or someone else will get back to you.
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