spiny norman said:
I don't get your ongoing Stephen Smith wankfest. He's been a solid foreign minister, without having to ever really having his portfolio be tested too much.
In the sense that he's been solid (and not a weakness like I feel Conroy and McClelland have been, and ultimately are the only ones I'd rate as such in the Rudd cabinet) he's done better than I expected.
But I was never overly impressed with him, and then Don Watson's depiction of him in Recollections of a Bleeding Heart seemed to me to reinforce my distrust of him (and given Latham's criticise of him seems to echo, I find it believable). I quote:
It's the kind of blandness Rudd is criticised for, but to a caricatured extent. I just don't think such a person who stands for so little could ever be considered a viable Prime Minister. Give me someone with personality any day.
Also, unless Rudd stands down incredibly soon, I don't think Smith's going to get any younger.
Well one key issue you are dodging is the lack of an alternative. Swan is a fantastic local member but he is really not up to senior ministry, let alone leadership, he looks and sounds like a toad, when he's got momentum he comes across as a bully and when he doesn't he's like a weak kid scrambling around trying to find his glassess. He is guilty of trying to memorise his lins at times which speaks volumes of his actual ability to ad lib, the only thing he really has going for him is that he didn't vote for Latham.
You must see that Gillard is an extremely polarising figure and whilst 65% of Australia are in that moderately socially progressive and fiscally conservative mood she can get away with it but if she keeps teasing opposition MP's whenever they concede that they don't have the numbers to block bills like she did Christopher Pyne on the education bill then come a time when the Rudd express begins to lose steam she will be made to pay for it. She spends political capital by the thousands. Plus she did the unthinkable that in my book should have her ruled out of consideration for the leadership, she voted for Latham.
Albanese is the leader of the house, for those few(and I'm not suggesting you are one) who think he is in the running he is not. He has the Leader of the House role because of his high level of understanding of parliamentary procedures and his confident speaking style, he is not in line to be prime minister which is why he has such a low ministry.
Lindsay Tanner would actually be a decent leader, even if he is more unfortunately named then the prime minister. But he is from the socialist left faction, he doesn't have the glossy look of Rudd or Smith and has fairly junior ministry for someone with such aspirations. I don't think he's in the running.
As for your nonsense about needing personality and Smith being too bland and on messsage, you're talking like a Latham. In 1996 John Howard was a walkiing platitude dispensor, Kevin Rudd spent 12 months trying to convince people he had no plans to change the machine that is Australia, just keep it well oiled, hence his appearance of not knowing what to do. A Smith premiership sounds about as exciting as a Crean-Macklin government, but a stale old government lead by Humphrey Appleby might benefit from a no-nonsense, issue driven leader with a sense of earnest and sincerity about him. He may be an apparatchick but he has one assett which Rudd, Gillard, Costello, Turnbull, Latham, Hockey and Keating will never quite understand, he doesn't seem to think himself the bees nees(even if he does in private).
As for your comment about age, A handover to me must happen in the next five years, The reason being I don't think Rudd will have a choice about it much afterwards. If Rudd wins in 2012-13, he will limp over the line providing Tony Abbott is kept locked up, the caucus will know he doesn't have the capital left to beat a competent opposition three years on from then and will need a good run up to an election if a new PM is going to handle it, so Rudd probably gets 1 year to handover or they knife him.
I do make room for the possibility that another MP will rise to prominence by then though and make him or herself the heir apparent. Fitz is doing well maybe he'll climb the greasy poll.
