[TENNIS] ATP 2015 French Open/Roland Garros Discussion Thread (1 Viewer)

[RivalryofTroll]

The draw will be released on the 22nd of May, 2015 (Friday) - but I think it'll be Saturday, Australian time.

Date: 24 May to 7 June

Defending men's singles champion (2014 winner): Rafael Nadal

2014 runner-up: Novak Djokovic

Top 10 seeds:
1. Novak Djokovic
2. Roger Federer
3. Andy Murray
4. Tomas Berdych
5. Kei Nishikori
6. Milos Raonic
7. Rafael Nadal
8. David Ferrer
9. Stan Wawrinka
10. Marin Cilic

Favourites (in order):
1. Djokovic (2015 Monte Carlo Masters 1000 champion and 2015 Rome Masters 1000 champion)
2. Nadal (2015 Madrid Masters 1000 runner-up and 2015 ATP250 Buenos Aires champion)
3. Murray (2015 Madrid Masters 1000 champion and 2015 ATP250 Munich Champion)
4. Nishikori (2015 ATP500 Barcelona champion)

Outsiders:
- Federer (2015 ATP250 Istanbul champion and 2015 Rome Masters 1000 runner-up)
- Berdych (2015 Monte Carlo Masters 1000 runner-up)
- Wawrinka
- Ferrer (2015 ATP500 Rio Open champion)

Analysis of clay form:
Nadal

Implications of Nadal's loss to Wawrinka in Rome (as well as losses to Djokovic in Monte Carlo, Fognini in Barcelona and Murray in Madrid):
- Despite winning a ATP250 clay title in Buenos Aires earlier this year, this is the first time in 10 years that Nadal has not won a European ATP World Tour clay-court title in the lead-up to Roland Garros.
2014 – Madrid
2013 – Barcelona, Madrid, Rome
2012 – Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Rome
2011 – Monte-Carlo, Barcelona
2010 – Monte-Carlo, Rome, Madrid
2009 – Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Rome
2008 – Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Hamburg
2007 – Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Rome
2006 – Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Rome
2005 – Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Rome

- Marks his 5th clay loss in a season. The last time Nadal lost more than 3 times on clay in 1 season was 2004.

So he enters RG without a single clay Masters 1000. He has not won a 500 title on clay this season either (after getting upsetted by Fognini in both Barcelona and Rio - the two ATP500 clay tournaments he entered this year). However, he reached the finals of the Madrid Masters 1000 at least.

Regardless of form, he is still the KING OF CLAY.

A record of 9 French Opens. 2005-2008 and 2010-2014. In other words, 1 loss in 10 entered.

H2H against Djokovic at RG: 6-0
H2H against Federer at RG: 5-0

Djokovic
- Djokovic is on a 37-match winning streak at the highest-level tournaments: Grand Slams, ATP Masters 1000s and Barclays ATP World Tour Finals. The run dates back to his title in Paris-Bercy last November:

- Undefeated so far in the 2015 clay season.
- Bookies' favourite to win RG 2015
- Winner of TWO Masters 1000 clay titles.

If he wins RG, he'll join Federer and Nadal as the only active players to have captured the Career Grand Slam (winning all 4 majors at least once in your career).

Murray
- Winner of back-to-back clay titles (ATP250 and Masters 1000 level).
- Undefeated so far in the 2015 clay season (10-0 record) - he skipped MC and forfeited in Rome though.

Nishikori
- Won a ATP500 clay title.
- Has a solid baseline game that can trouble the 'Big 4'.
- However, not sure if he can physically battle it out over 5 sets on clay against Nadal/Murray/Djokovic.

Federer
- Won a 250 title and reached the finals in Rome.
- However, he has been vulnerable to upsets on clay (Monfils in MC and Kyrgios in Madrid).
- I suspect that he'll be vulnerable in the early rounds.

Berdych
- Very consistent this season (has not lost before the QFs stage in every tournament he has entered so far this year).
- Reached the Monte Carlo finals.

Predictions:
Even with Nadal's terrible form (by his standards), you can't count him out but I predict a run to the QFs/SFs. I know Nadal is a different beast on 5 sets clay than 3 sets but he's been straight setted by various players this clay season, not just Djokovic, such as Murray, Fognini and Wawrinka.

Djokovic will at least get to the SFs. In 2011, he was the favourite too but ended up getting stunned by Federer in the SFs. I have a feeling something similar may happen, even if Nadal loses.

Federer will get stunned in the QFs or earlier.

2015 champion prediction - ANDY MURRAY

However, this year could be similar to 2009 (where Federer won the FO and finally captured the Career Grand Slam because Soderling upset Nadal in the earlier rounds) - except it'll be Djokovic's turn.

Will the 'King of Clay' defend his French crown and win a 10th French Open, or will Djokovic live up to the expectations as the ultimate favourite (despite a 0-6 H2H against Nadal at the French Open), or will Murray/Federer/Berdych/Nishikori/Wawrinka/et al surprise people?​

 

[Green Yoda]

Nadal will win.

 

[astroman]

djoker always wins

 

[RivalryofTroll]

Ranking the ATP’s Top 15 Players on Clay Heading into Roland Garros

 

[RivalryofTroll]

Update:

Raonic has withdrawn. Wawrinka is thus the 8th seed.

Draw for the Men's Singles 2015

Projected QFs for top half:
Djokovic v Nadal
Murray v Ferrer

Projected QFs for bottom half:
Nishikori v Berdych
Federer v Wawrinka

One of Djokovic or Nadal is going to take a big hit in terms of defending ranking points - Djokovic was the RG finalist and Nadal was the RG champion last year.

Federer's draw is relatively straightforward but there's a possible 4th round clash with Monfils who can upset him (like in Monte Carlo this year or Davis Cup last year). Despite his easier draw (compared to Djokovic/Nadal/Berdych), I feel like Olderer is just prone to upsets nowadays.

Murray v Ferrer is interesting. I don't think Andy has ever won a clay match against David. However, the new Murray is dangerous on clay so I'm still going with him to take it home (Djokovic and Nadal should tire each other out).

Nishikori has a good chance to make it to the finals.

 

[RivalryofTroll]

Djokovic and Nadal upon seeing that they are in the same quarter.

 

[Tsonga]

Allez Jo!