The 2024 U.S. election thread 🇺🇸 🦅 (3 Viewers)

[Solarised]

Guess America will be great again

 

[synthesisFR]

ts lowk kinda fun to watch from the sidelines
wonder how america is feeling rn
some people are probably barking

 

[Solarised]

ts lowk kinda fun to watch from the sidelines
wonder how america is feeling rn
some people are probably barking

ishowspeed bro is the barking culprit

 

[synthesisFR]

I bet $10k on the election AMA


I am very confident (80%+) on the outcome (KH wins), and I bought in at 34% odds. My position will be worth $27k if she wins. I've played some poker and if somebody offers you those odds, you put in as much as you can afford to lose.
I work now in political data, but my most of my career was in digital advocacy, and I have an advanced degree in policy analysis. I also worked for a while as a local news reporter. I have a broader perspective than most hardcore politicos, and based on a host of observations I think the outcome will be pretty decisive, and I think it will take a day or two at most to become clear.
My reasons:

• gender gap in the early voting
• the collapse of the GOP field operation
• Trump's MSG rally and the fallout in the PR community

These are not the only reasons why I think what I do, these are just some major elements that solidified it.
I make a reasonable salary but this is not a trivial amount of money for me. (I can afford to lose it, and if Trump wins frankly I will have bigger problems.) I've been sifting the data for weeks and things look very clear to me, and the more I thought about the more I thought I should put some money where my mouth was. I bought my first house during the pandemic and if this pays out, I can pay for a major upgrade. AMA
edit: clarified that my position will be worth $27k, not pay me $27k on top of my $10k.
edit2: clarified that the bullet points aren't my only reasons for thinking what I do. I admit that this is a subjective analysis - I am not trying to prove or convince anyone that I'm right. I just think this is likely enough that I'm willing to put some money on it. I'm aware that DT could still win!
edit3: yes I saw that poll. yes I saw that article about how polls are bad. no I don't care what nate silver thinks. no its not possible that I'm biased. maybe you are, but not me. inconceivable.

 

[enoilgam]

some people are probably barking

On the plus side, he is term limited. So after 4 years of this he will be gone for good. A big problem with the US is the short 2 year congressional terms. Since 2006 I think congress has flipped almost every single time. Part of the reason why nothing gets done. On a related note, Australia Federally needs to move to 4 year terms like the rest of the states.

 

[radagastthebrown]

gg chat

 

[enoilgam]

BAP enjoyer????

Im quoting Sylvia because he is somewhat relevant given his fervent MAGA support. The Democrats were very hopeful because of the turnout of young voters. I actually think that would not have gone the way they wanted. I think one of the big issues in a lot of liberal democracies is how they have completely neglected and disaffected an entire generation of young straight men. To my dismay, I feel this group has been beaten down by the left and constantly told what they are doing wrong. The epitome of this was that flog of a journalist who called Ned Brockmann's 1000km run toxic masculinity because apparently mental toughness is toxic. Just completely stupid and shows a complete misunderstanding of how to engage men on their terms. Men value toughness and competition, but these qualities have been beaten down by societies messaging and schooling. Is it any wonder young men flock to people like Andrew Tate and Donald Trump who provide them with the space to explore these qualities?

I dislike both Trump and Tate, but 100% get why they are so well liked.

 

[cute lil monkey]

I HATE KAMALA HARRIS!!!!!!

 

[cute lil monkey]

3 NEEDED FOR TRUMP LESSSSGOOOOOOOOO

WHO THE WINNNNNEEEEERRRRRRR HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAINNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[KanyeWestLover76]

it was always going to go to the wire

Through the wire?

 

[tvskAXatar]

The world will be a better place again. The war in Ukraine will be fixed very soon and the Middle East tensions will also calm down. Because of ice cream man and California coffee lady the whole world is blowing up, oppressive regimes have popped up. People are dying. Houses, schools, apartments and hospitals are blowing up across the world every minute because of Biden/Harris.

It’s time for a fix.

 

[synthesisFR]

Through the wire?

THROUGH THE FIREE

 

[tvskAXatar]

On the plus side, he is term limited. So after 4 years of this he will be gone for good. A big problem with the US is the short 2 year congressional terms. Since 2006 I think congress has flipped almost every single time. Part of the reason why nothing gets done. On a related note, Australia Federally needs to move to 4 year terms like the rest of the states.

NO, it would take longer to vote out an unpopular government

 

[cute lil monkey]

W trump

L harris

 

[Solarised]

W trump

L harris

I never knew someone could jump on the bandwagon for a US election this is crazy

 

[cute lil monkey]

I never knew someone could jump on the bandwagon for a US election this is crazy

wdym trump is a better god than jesus in every way

 

[Solarised]

wdym trump is a better god than jesus in every way

?

 

[tvskAXatar]

Harris would have lowkey started a China-Taiwan conflict and would have caused further annihilation in Gaza, Israel, Lebanon and Ukraine.

the threat is now averted.

 

[nsw..wollongong]

The level of denial on reddit. All the "How can people vote for Trump" people when Democrats have completely enabled this shitshow. They put Biden and Harris in 4 years ago, obviously with the understanding that Biden would serve a 4 year term and would groom Harris. Now, this is a great idea, Biden is an experienced politician and Harris at the time a rising star. Where it went wrong was Harris pretty early on showed she wasnt up to the job. So instead of pushing other potentials, the Democrats decide to allow a clearly past his prime Biden to run. When that absolutely went to the shit (it should never have got to that point), they just went with Harris. Biden should have been pushed aside earlier to allow for a proper Primary, where the Democrats could have chosen a candidate with a chance (Andy Beshear, Roy Cooper, Tim Walz, Mark Kelly etc). As a result, a second rate candidate went up against a very seasoned operator.

Calling trump very seasoned made me giggle icl.

 

[tvskAXatar]

Has Albo called Don Trump and congratulated him on a landslide victory?