UAI predictions- how accurate were we? (2 Viewers)

[physician]

I predicted my UAI to be between 75 - 85... later changed to 77 - 85

*hint* *hint* *nudge* *nudge*

C_James, I think it would be impossible to predict a UAI of 100, and nevertheless, I dont think anyone would want a prediction of 100 lol, u would have performed below their expectations even with 99.95 lol!

Not that anything is wrong with 99.95!

UAI of 100.00 (wow!), well done and congratulation!!!

 

[SweetSeasons]

I think the lower your UAI is gonna be the bigger the difference is... my 2003 prediction was 3 or 4 UAI points off what I got in 2004

 

[physician]

I think the lower your UAI is gonna be the bigger the difference is... my 2003 prediction was 3 or 4 UAI points off what I got in 2004

Yeah true...

If u notice, the UAI's jumped (down) the most in 2004 (looking at SAM). The 2003 prediction for my UAI was about 4 points off the 2004 prediction (2003 being about 4 points higher than 2004), yet my 2005 UAI was about 1.5 points higher than the SAM 2004 prediction!

 

[Sparcod]

wasn't smart_dunce asking how accurate the actual people on BOS were in predicting uai's? nothing to do with SAM or JUAI?

i never started a thread on predicting my uai. i knew it was going to be shit and i didnt want to know what people thought i'd get

After 15 posts, someone got it.
Im doing the hsc this year, i could trust the SAM from what i've heard.

 

[Sparcod]

Overall, 2005 kids are brighter. It's harder to get a high uai these days.

 

[asscookie]

SAM: 92.15
UAI: 92.70

Not too far off

 

[Lil Miss Karly]

Putting in my actual hsc marks with 2004 SAM = 75.4
actual uai = 75.25

I was thinking it would be about 4 points lower so i was happy.

 

[c_james]

I predicted my UAI to be between 75 - 85... later changed to 77 - 85

*hint* *hint* *nudge* *nudge*

C_James, I think it would be impossible to predict a UAI of 100, and nevertheless, I dont think anyone would want a prediction of 100 lol, u would have performed below their expectations even with 99.95 lol!

Not that anything is wrong with 99.95!

UAI of 100.00 (wow!), well done and congratulation!!!

Heh, thanks dude.

And I suppose you're right - it would be a bit stupid to give someone a prediction of 100. Nevertheless, I think once it's been established that you're likely for 99.5+, anything above that really is possible.

 

[fleepbasding]

I predicted something like 94 for myself in that thread way back before the exams. I then revised it to 92 or so in my post-exam period confidence dip. I ended up with 98.6, with some big surprises in terms of exam results.

 

[Danoz The Great]

Personally I said I'd be lucky/happy with anything >60.
SAM/jUAI said 75.15
I got 71.5

It was a little bit of a let-down at first, I admit 75 would have been nice. But still, I got 11 points over 60 so that was cool

 

[darkroomgirl]

I was predicting 85... 'cause I really thought that Music would drag me down.

When I got my results, I entered the data into SAM and nearly fell off my chair when it said 97.40.

The next day I practically fainted after seeing 97.50 as my UAI.

So, conclusion is...

Me = bad UAI predictor.
SAM = pretty reliable.

 

[anthea1304]

I was predicting 85... 'cause I really thought that Music would drag me down.

When I got my results, I entered the data into SAM and nearly fell off my chair when it said 97.40.

The next day I practically fainted after seeing 97.50 as my UAI.

So, conclusion is...

Me = bad UAI predictor.
SAM = pretty reliable.

ditto! well kinda, SAM worked well for me with my final HSC marks. 0.5-1 off. cept i entered my raw school assessment marks (without scaling) during the year and SAM was 14 off from my real uai. my bad for believing in my 1st few estimates. :|

 

[The_Apprentice]

own prediction: well, my ancient teacher and I had a talk and she said to aim for 70, so I was mentally preparing for that.

2004 SAM: I just put the numbers in today, surprisingly accurate - 94.25

actual UAI: 94.4

I was so shocked when I found out, I'm still celebrating..

Anyway, I've noticed a slight trend in this forum. Has anyone else noticed that many of the SAM/JUAI predictions were slighted lower than actual scores? I'm getting worried that this means UAI cut-off are rising from last year!

 

[seremify007]

ditto! well kinda, SAM worked well for me with my final HSC marks. 0.5-1 off. cept i entered my raw school assessment marks (without scaling) during the year and SAM was 14 off from my real uai. my bad for believing in my 1st few estimates. :|

Probably because of people like you and me who put in our raw school marks because we don't know how to align (c'mon you can't blame us!), there is that warning at the top now (well I never noticed it before) which says;

Please remember that school assessment marks are typically very different to HSC marks.

 

[reggina_calcio]

Anyway, I've noticed a slight trend in this forum. Has anyone else noticed that many of the SAM/JUAI predictions were slighted lower than actual scores? I'm getting worried that this means UAI cut-off are rising from last year!

What do you mean?

Do you mean the cut-offs for university courses? If so, you have nothig to worry about. The UAI is a rank of every student in the state, including those from your year 10 cohort. Uni cutoffs will only rise/fall as a result of change in demand for the course, or the number of places in the course offered.

SAM and JUAI's 'lower' predictions probably has more to do with some subjects scalling slighlty better than what they used to in years gone by...but im not really sure...

 

[The_Apprentice]

^ hope you're right. But I meant that, say last year, many cut-offs for courses went down due to lack of demand or whatever. It seems this year competition for places might be a bit tougher since we did slightly better on the whole..

 

[goan_crazy]

JUAI: 95.65
actual UAI: 95.75
pretty accurate

 

[niteshade1312]

Why did you smart people predict much lower than you thought? I don't understand the reasoning in that. Is it that you don't have any faith in your abilties, or that the people around you told you to "prepare for the worse"?

I predicted in the 80's for my UAI and I received just that. Am I the only one in this forum that actualy thought realisticaly and wasn't upset because I received what I thought I would? That also counts taking into consideration the different subjects I had?!

Maybe I'm just a lucky one that knows my own abilties!

 

[The_Apprentice]

Why did you smart people predict much lower than you thought?

Without going off on a tangent, I don't believe that high UAIs reflect intelligence...If you were refering to posts like the one I made above, than this is my reasoning:

1. I've always been told that my subjects scaled bad. I did;
* English Ad: apparantly doesnt scale up
* Extension eng: did this thinking it would improve my english (didn't help much)
* General Maths; dropped 2unit cos it got too anal for me by half yearly prelim. Don't need to explain that it scaled shit.
* Ancient History
*Extension history: this unit, and ex eng didnt count towards UAI
* Visual Art: haha
* Business Studies: are you aware that more people got band ones than band six in 2005 HSC (double, in fact)? yeh...it scaled waay worse than MATHS GENERAL..

2. To be completely honest, I didn't have much faith in my abilities at all. I always worked hard at assessments cos I felt that I was failing..It's not really that people around me "prepared" me for the worse (apart from my ancient teacher), I did.

3. I'm a bad judge of the whole scaling shit.

 

[Tommy_69]

From my raw school assessments my school worked out that I would get a UAI of 82.00. My raw school assessments inputed into sam turned out to be around 84.50. When i got my results i put them into SAM and JUAI. Results as follows:

SAM 2005: 93.90
JUAI: 94.75
Real UAI: 93.80

Therefore SAM was way more accurate for me. UAI predictions only scare you during the year, dont rely on them 06ers.