N Korea conducts Nuclear test. (2 Viewers)

[DeathB4Life]

anyone here ever played Utopia? i think all you guys in this discussion might really enjoy the game. here is how i see things:

NK has now obtained "suicide kamekazi explosion" skill giving it good leverage over other countries, if anyone decides to hit them they better be prepared for retaliation unless they have enough mages to resist NK spells.

NK does have an extremely high draft rate for someone relying on their kamekazi explosion rate, meaning quick series of coordinated attacks could quickly kill their economy. NK should have went pure mage, instead of going attacker/mage to improve their economy. NK peasants are also displeased with their ruler due to their high draft rate and lack of farms, making their economy even more easy to disable. NK already have a very low trade balance due to reliance on aid from the provinces in their kingdom, meaning that any aid givien from now on will have a high tax rate. The fellow Asian provinces are debating whether they should halt aid to NK, insisting that NK should build more banks and farms and less guilds.

Although NK now has enough runes to cast kamekazi explosion spells, they have a very low amount of towers and fellow provinces are no longer sending them aid, meaning that currently are able to only cast a single barrage of spells. As long as hostilities do not escalate into war, NK will continue massing runes, giving it even more leverage over Asia.

although a long drawn out war with a country like India could mean high casaulties for both sides, India does have the +25% population growth ability so it would be able to quickly recover from NK spells and eventually win in a long drawn out war even though NK's elites do have +2 attack advantage over India's elites.

Japan is currently in eco mode, giving it the ability to quickly send a dragon to NK or convert to a high draft rate army and be able to sustain it for longer periods of time. Japan would likly need to increase their number of forts if all out war does occur as they have very few troops for such a large population, meaning that if NK starts producing enough boats to reach Japan they could easily claim alot of land. Japan is currently at high risk but given about 72 hours they should be able to train enough def specs and convert their build from being bank intensive to barracks, stables and fort intensive. If Japan does decide to send a dragon to NK it will easily be able to cripple their economy which is already suffering. Given enough time Japan would likely increase their mage count to resist NK spells, but in a short term war it would be easier for Japan to simply convert to attacker mode.

China has been exploring all age and with its large area of land and high population it is extremely vulnerable to NK suicide spell which does percentage damage, meaning China would suffer the most from an attack. China currently does not have enough mages to resist a barrage of spells from NK so it would be in their best interest to attack NK first and overpop them, then continue with a series of raze attacks to kill their economy. although China too does have the ability to take out NK they are planning on attacking when NK goes offline in order to buy them as much time as possible and hopefully disable them before they can retaliate.

USA is currently trying to form an alliance with the individual provinces in the Asian kingdom meaning that helping them take out their rogue province NK could help them in later situations.
They are currently performing non aggressive ops such as crystal balls and surveys so they dont push the hostile meter too far, pushing them into war too early.

USA is only just recovering from a war with several provinces in the Middle East kingdom, so their economy is currently unable to support another large scale war with NK. Their army currently consists of a few elites which they left at home, while their off specs are returning from an attack at Iraq. They will need to hold off from hostilities with NK until their army returns. Although they are not yet ready for war with NK, their high mage count will be able to resist NK missile attacks and their 15 island distance from NK will offer them protection from an opening attack.

Australia is placed 20 islands away from NK meaning that a traditional march attack could take up to +20 hours depending on how many barracks NK has, and will undoubtedly open them up to retaliation from the Australias allies in Asia. The USA is currently trying to send in its thieves to gather intel on NK build to determine the number of barracks they have. Once USA has enough stealth they will continue the ops and PM the intel to Australia.




... im such a geek with too much time on my hands

*goes to do some study

 

[melb22]

Uh, no, Indonesia will never compare with Germany's economy. Never.

Well it would. I am here talking about size of the economy not gdp/capita. Not just indonesia, but even mexico and brazil would have a bigger economy then germany by then.

 

[what971]

I think you are underestimating the power of nuclear weapons as a deterrent. If indonesia invaded us of course we would give one to Jakarta. That goes without saying.



Wtf would North Korea bomb China - its only friend in the universe. NK developed weapons not to threaten China but to bring the US to the negotiating table on a one to one basis, with the intention of securing a non-aggression treaty. The reason why the US advocated for the six party bullshit is to avoid one to one dialogue with a "rogue state".

NK will threaten China if they're pushed hard enough. NK's been hating on China for a while now, they think that the Chinese are inferior because they 'betrayed Communism'.

If China pushes too hard then NK will push back.

 

[what971]

Well it would. I am here talking about size of the economy not gdp/capita. Not just indonesia, but even mexico and brazil would have a bigger economy then germany by then.

No they wouldn't. Because economic growth is dependent on volume of international trade. Let's face it, the main reason Europe and Asia's economies grew so quickly was because of trade with the USA (Marshall plan etc.). In the 50-60s Japan benefitted from trade so they expanded, 70-80s was South Korea's turn after the wage demands for Japanese workers got too much for American companies. The 90s was supposed to be SE Asia's turn and Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand did kind of benefit from that but the shift from China into a capitalist state meant that they've succeeded in taking most of the economic trade with the West. Add that to the likes of India who are competing for Western investment money. That basically meant that the likes of Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Burma, Indonesia, Philippines, have unfortunately, missed their turn.

Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil will never have as big as economies as North America, Europe or East Asia in the forseeable future. Especially as regional trade agreements are favoured and the likes of Europe start increasing protection on goods/services outside the EU.

 

[melb22]

No they wouldn't. Because economic growth is dependent on volume of international trade. Let's face it, the main reason Europe and Asia's economies grew so quickly was because of trade with the USA (Marshall plan etc.). In the 50-60s Japan benefitted from trade so they expanded, 70-80s was South Korea's turn after the wage demands for Japanese workers got too much for American companies. The 90s was supposed to be SE Asia's turn and Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand did kind of benefit from that but the shift from China into a capitalist state meant that they've succeeded in taking most of the economic trade with the West. Add that to the likes of India who are competing for Western investment money. That basically meant that the likes of Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Burma, Indonesia, Philippines, have unfortunately, missed their turn.

Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil will never have as big as economies as North America, Europe or East Asia in the forseeable future. Especially as regional trade agreements are favoured and the likes of Europe start increasing protection on goods/services outside the EU.

Well atleast many economist think that would be the case including goldman sachs and pricewaterhousecoopers. Infact over the next 40 years the only country that would have a higher gdp growth per year then indonesia would be India. brazil and Mexico would be the 5th and 6th Biggest economy by 2050. Out of India, china, brazil, mexico and Indonesia, Mexico will have the highest gdp/capita. China, Usa and India in that order would be much bigger then any european or asian country. Just for comparision, India would be by then the 3rd biggest economy but comparatively to japan and germany it would be bigger by around the same margin as what usa is comparatively to japan and germany today. That is a huge difference.

 

[what971]

Those arguments really only hold if you believe that North America, Europe and East Asia's economies will stagnate for the next decade or two.

I don't think they will.

 

[Bendent]

the thing is korea wouldnt be bombing the peasants in bumfuck nowhere, they would be bombing the capital cities where most of the ecconomy is as well as has a large population, all of whom work

if beijing and shanghai were n00ked, china would be back into the stone age.

not really china is a lot bigger than beijing and shanghai. if small rich countires get nuked the whole country sinks.

 

[Bendent]

NK will threaten China if they're pushed hard enough. NK's been hating on China for a while now, they think that the Chinese are inferior because they 'betrayed Communism'.

If China pushes too hard then NK will push back.

hahah funneh reason.

 

[melb22]

Those arguments really only hold if you believe that North America, Europe and East Asia's economies will stagnate for the next decade or two.
I don't think they will.

nope they arent supposed to be stagnant even in the analysis. Actually they will mostly remain at the same growth rate at which they are growing right now in the analysis. What people have to realise is that the other countries have massive population and that is one of the main reasons they will be bigger then western countries in the future. Of course having a bigger economy does not mean your std. of living is higher. For eg. south korea in 2050 will have a higher gdp/capita then any other asian or european country and 2nd only to usa. But it's population is just under 50 million and its growth rate is not that high which makes it difficult to have a bigger economy in the future with countries with 200-300 million population.

 

[poloktim]

I don't know why people here are quoting Japan's constitution. It's a fairly logical step for Japan to take - that is to take advantage of the situation and do what they are already capable of doing. This will of course depend on the US's blessing which is a bigger question than most suspect.

Bush was pushing Koizumi to amend the constitution. Bush will push Abe to do the same. China won't like it, but Bush wants Japan that has an armed forces. It also doesn't help Japan's case with China when senior government officials piss them off ("of course Taiwan is a country").

If you read the constitution when I posted it you'll know why Article 96 is so important to Article 9. Japanese people claim Article 9 to be the "pearl of Asia." While people believe the constitution should be less western (the neo-nationalists), the general consensus of the population is that Article 9 should remain. Fighting wars is a thing of the past.

But in order to remove Article 9 from the constitution, the government has to follow Article 96. Putting the amendment through both houses is easy... Japan is a single-party state (more or less), with the LDP holding power since the fifties (except in 92/93). Being in coalition with the New Komeito party means the LDP get all the people who vote for New Komeito, those who follow Sokagakkai (though Sokagakkai/New Komeito pushes for peaceful resolutions for everything, so maybe would vote against an amendment to Article 9). Putting a constituional amendment to the people is more difficult. So much so, that I don't think the Japanese constitution has changed at all since it was installed.

 

[marwanjamiel]

guys, everyone is blowing this out of proportion.

N Korea has a right to nuclear weapons. Dangerous nations such as Israel (highly militaristic) and Pakistan (politically unstable) have nukes. N Korea, facing daily threats from the West, has a right to defend itself, and the only way it can develop a deterrent against a power such as the US is by developing nuclear weapons.

Seriously, nothing is going to come out of this. Everyone is complaining about how Kim Jong-Il is a crazy psycho maniac, who would fire a nuclear weapon because he enjoys blowing stuff up. This could not be further from the truth. Both former US Secretary of State Madeline Albright and former South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung, who are part of a small group of people to have had extended talks with Kim Jong-Il, have stated that he is in fact very intelligent, and that the worlds opinion of him is skewed.

N Korea is developing these weapons as a deterrent. Any other country in the world would do the same thing if it was in their situation. If the US and other nations did not continue threatening its existence, it would have no need for these weapons.

 

[ElendilPeredhil]

I don't know why people here are quoting Japan's constitution. It's a fairly logical step for Japan to take - that is to take advantage of the situation and do what they are already capable of doing. This will of course depend on the US's blessing which is a bigger question than most suspect.

It's logical in our eyes, but I don't know that Japan will ever use nuclear weapons. It's a cultural thing, so maybe not 'never' but not in the near future anyway.

 

[MMAACCKK]

I would be surprised if Japan ever considered building nuclear weapons. That whole "hiroshima' incident leaves a bad taste.

 

[_dhj_]

It's logical in our eyes, but I don't know that Japan will ever use nuclear weapons. It's a cultural thing, so maybe not 'never' but not in the near future anyway.

I didn't say that they will use nuclear weapons, merely that they will develop nuclear weapons. There is a difference, and mere possession of a nuclear arsenal provides a country with strategic advantage without actual use.

I would be surprised if Japan ever considered building nuclear weapons. That whole "hiroshima' incident leaves a bad taste.

Clearly you've not learnt about Meiji Japan.

 

[Serius]

atleast it isnt a H bomb.

 

[sunjet]

guys, everyone is blowing this out of proportion.

N Korea has a right to nuclear weapons. Dangerous nations such as Israel (highly militaristic) and Pakistan (politically unstable) have nukes. N Korea, facing daily threats from the West, has a right to defend itself, and the only way it can develop a deterrent against a power such as the US is by developing nuclear weapons.

Seriously, nothing is going to come out of this. Everyone is complaining about how Kim Jong-Il is a crazy psycho maniac, who would fire a nuclear weapon because he enjoys blowing stuff up. This could not be further from the truth. Both former US Secretary of State Madeline Albright and former South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung, who are part of a small group of people to have had extended talks with Kim Jong-Il, have stated that he is in fact very intelligent, and that the worlds opinion of him is skewed.

N Korea is developing these weapons as a deterrent. Any other country in the world would do the same thing if it was in their situation. If the US and other nations did not continue threatening its existence, it would have no need for these weapons.

You do know in practice, DPRK is a practicly a military dictatorship and has one of the largest armies in the world? I agree, they are using it as a deterrent, but since the US will probably enforce greater trade embargos as a result instead of removing current sanctions and/or military intervention; we can't predict how Jong-Il will react.

 

[Aryanbeauty]

If US wanted to invade North korea it would have done so decades ago. It is just waiting it to collapse by itself like Soviet Union and eastern europe or adapt itself like china and vietnam which is more wishful thinking in my opinion. To accelerate this process trade embargo is the right and easy approach for USA

 

[Calculon]

guys, everyone is blowing this out of proportion.

N Korea has a right to nuclear weapons. Dangerous nations such as Israel (highly militaristic) and Pakistan (politically unstable) have nukes. N Korea, facing daily threats from the West, has a right to defend itself, and the only way it can develop a deterrent against a power such as the US is by developing nuclear weapons.

Seriously, nothing is going to come out of this. Everyone is complaining about how Kim Jong-Il is a crazy psycho maniac, who would fire a nuclear weapon because he enjoys blowing stuff up. This could not be further from the truth. Both former US Secretary of State Madeline Albright and former South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung, who are part of a small group of people to have had extended talks with Kim Jong-Il, have stated that he is in fact very intelligent, and that the worlds opinion of him is skewed.

N Korea is developing these weapons as a deterrent. Any other country in the world would do the same thing if it was in their situation. If the US and other nations did not continue threatening its existence, it would have no need for these weapons.

Hahahahahhaa Israel's militaristic, but a nation that spends twice as much on its military as a proportion of its GDP isn't?

 

[HotShot]

Hahahahahhaa Israel's militaristic, but a nation that spends twice as much on its military as a proportion of its GDP isn't?

no, israel is militaristic and has nuclear weapons so why shouldnt NK?

I think NK have struck good chord here, they now have some negotiation power, economic sanctions will prove useless if NK threatens to nuke any country nearby. But that is if they have tested properly and if they have the technology the capability to fire those missiles if the world knows that have nuclear weapon but are pretty useless with it - then really NK hasnt achieved a lot.

as for stating that india and pakistan balance each other - obviously the person who stated it dont understand militarily, politically and historically the war between them India could at well at any stage invade Pakistan - but they never will one because they are a democratic nation and secondly there is no reason to invade pakistan. The war has been over basically Kashmir with lot of politically twists involved.

But the situation now in the region is basically - nothing much significant is happening.

anyway back NK , they claimed to have done another test - but apparently it was 'earthquake'. The first test was ambigous. anyway obviously NK are desperate and think this action ultimately will hurt them in the future.

 

[marwanjamiel]

Hahahahahhaa Israel's militaristic, but a nation that spends twice as much on its military as a proportion of its GDP isn't?

Congratulations, you got the point of my post.

My point was that even a highly militaristic nation can have nukes without using them. The highly militaristic nation I was talking about was NK. I then used Israel, another militaristic nation, as an example of a nation that has not used its nukes.

You do know in practice, DPRK is a practicly a military dictatorship and has one of the largest armies in the world? I agree, they are using it as a deterrent, but since the US will probably enforce greater trade embargos as a result instead of removing current sanctions and/or military intervention; we can't predict how Jong-Il will react.

No, the DPRK is not a military dictatorship, as Kim Jong-Il is a civilian, he is not a general or a member of the army. Just because it has a large army, or is oriented towards strengthening its military, does not make it a military dictatorship.

Also, as I proved earlier, Kim Jong-Il is not a mental psycho like his Western image. He wouldn't fire nukes unless threatened with war, and any other country in the world, including happy-happy-free-liberal-democratic-lalaland (aka the US) would react the same way if it was threatened with war.

If US wanted to invade North korea it would have done so decades ago. It is just waiting it to collapse by itself like Soviet Union and eastern europe or adapt itself like china and vietnam which is more wishful thinking in my opinion. To accelerate this process trade embargo is the right and easy approach for USA

No, the reason the US did not invade DPRK decades ago is because it tried decades ago, and failed. That was what the 1950-1953 Korean war was. Obviously, after you lose a war you cannot simply start it again a year later, so they waited until the time was right again. However, during that time, the DPRK strengthened its military to such an extent that the US would "lose" in the same way it lost in Vietnam. That is, it would win in a military sense, but the casualties amassed would force the US to evacuate due to strong public opinion against the war.